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Verdexed Projection Engine · v2 · self-correcting

The 2026 Draft Board

Built by a machine that studied 14 seasons of NFL history, weighs ten signals on every player, prices its every opinion against the live draft market, and retrains itself weekly. It doesn't guess 10,000 times and call that science — it shows its work once, in public, losses included.

7,974

player-seasons studied

7–3

vs the market, 10 replayed drafts

Every pick

priced against live ADP

Weekly

self-retraining through drafts

10 replayed drafts: 7–3 vs ADP (PPR)2024 (latest graded): +2.49%full backtest, losses included — see the math
  1. 1

    Bijan Robinson

    RB1ATL · bye 11

    —
  2. 2

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB2DET · bye 6

    —
  3. 3

    Puka Nacua

    WR1LAR · bye 11

    —
  4. 4

    Ja'Marr Chase

    WR2CIN · bye 6

    —
  5. 5

    Christian McCaffrey

    RB3SF · bye 8

    —
  6. 6

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    WR3SEA · bye 11

    —
  7. 7

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR4DET · bye 6

    —
  8. 8

    Jonathan Taylor

    RB5IND · bye 13 · market RB4

    -1
  9. 9

    De'Von AchaneQuestionable

    RB4MIA · bye 6 · market RB5

    +1
  10. 10

    Justin Jefferson

    WR6MIN · bye 6 · market WR5

    -1
  11. 11

    CeeDee Lamb

    WR5DAL · bye 14 · market WR6

    +1
  12. 12

    Ashton Jeanty

    RB8LV · bye 13 · market RB6

    -2
  13. 13

    Drake LondonQuestionable

    WR7ATL · bye 11

    —
  14. 14

    James Cook

    RB6BUF · bye 7 · market RB7

    +1
  15. 15

    A.J. Brown

    WR9NE · bye 11 · market WR8

    -1
  16. 16

    Derrick Henry

    RB7BAL · bye 13 · market RB8

    +1
  17. 17

    Chase Brown

    RB10CIN · bye 6 · market RB9

    -1
  18. 18

    Omarion Hampton

    RB12LAC · bye 7 · market RB10

    -2
  19. 19

    George Pickens

    WR8DAL · bye 14 · market WR9

    +1
  20. 20

    Saquon Barkley

    RB9PHI · bye 10 · market RB11

    +2
  21. 21

    Chris Olave

    WR11NO · bye 8 · market WR10

    -1
  22. 22

    Jeremiyah LoveR

    RB16ARI · bye 14 · market RB12

    -4
  23. 23

    Kenneth Walker III

    RB14KC · bye 5 · market RB13

    -1
  24. 24

    Nico Collins

    WR10HOU · bye 8 · market WR11

    +1
  25. 25

    Zay Flowers

    WR12BAL · bye 13

    —
  26. 26

    Tee Higgins

    WR13CIN · bye 6

    —
  27. 27

    Garrett Wilson

    WR15NYJ · bye 13 · market WR14

    -1
  28. 28

    Rashee RiceQuestionable

    WR18KC · bye 5 · market WR15

    -3
  29. 29

    Josh Jacobs

    RB13GB · bye 11 · market RB14

    +1
  30. 30

    DeVonta Smith

    WR17PHI · bye 10 · market WR16

    -1
  31. 31

    Trey McBride

    TE1ARI · bye 14

    —
  32. 32

    Josh Allen

    QB1BUF · bye 7

    —
  33. 33

    Breece Hall

    RB11NYJ · bye 13 · market RB15

    +4
  34. 34

    Kyren Williams

    RB15LAR · bye 11 · market RB16

    +1
  35. 35

    Tetairoa McMillanQuestionable

    WR14CAR · bye 5 · market WR17

    +3
  36. 36

    Javonte Williams

    RB17DAL · bye 14

    —
  37. 37

    Ladd McConkeyQuestionable

    WR16LAC · bye 7 · market WR18

    +2
  38. 38

    Brock Bowers

    TE2LV · bye 13

    —
  39. 39

    Terry McLaurin

    WR21WAS · bye 7 · market WR19

    -2
  40. 40

    Cam SkatteboQuestionable

    RB22NYG · bye 8 · market RB18

    -4
  41. 41

    Travis Etienne

    RB20NO · bye 8 · market RB19

    -1
  42. 42

    Davante Adams

    WR25LAR · bye 11 · market WR20

    -5
  43. 43

    Jaylen Waddle

    WR19DEN · bye 10 · market WR21

    +2
  44. 44

    Malik NabersQuestionable

    WR23NYG · bye 8 · market WR22

    -1
  45. 45

    Emeka Egbuka

    WR20TB · bye 10 · market WR23

    +3
  46. 46

    Colston Loveland

    TE3CHI · bye 10

    —
  47. 47

    Luther Burden III

    WR22CHI · bye 10 · market WR24

    +2
  48. 48

    Jameson Williams

    WR24DET · bye 6 · market WR25

    +1
  49. 49

    Bucky IrvingQuestionable

    RB18TB · bye 10 · market RB20

    +2
  50. 50

    Joe Burrow

    QB8CIN · bye 6 · market QB2

    -6
  51. 51

    D'Andre Swift

    RB19CHI · bye 10 · market RB21

    +2
  52. 52

    Quinshon JudkinsQuestionable

    RB23CLE · bye 11 · market RB22

    -1
  53. 53

    Mike Evans

    WR28SF · bye 8 · market WR26

    -2
  54. 54

    Tyler Warren

    TE4IND · bye 13

    —
  55. 55

    Lamar Jackson

    QB6BAL · bye 13 · market QB3

    -3
  56. 56

    Rome Odunze

    WR27CHI · bye 10

    —
  57. 57

    DK Metcalf

    WR26PIT · bye 9 · market WR28

    +2
  58. 58

    David Montgomery

    RB24HOU · bye 8 · market RB23

    -1
  59. 59

    TreVeyon Henderson

    RB21NE · bye 11 · market RB24

    +3
  60. 60

    Alec PierceQuestionable

    WR29IND · bye 13

    —
  61. 61

    Christian Watson

    WR34GB · bye 11 · market WR30

    -4
  62. 62

    Dak PrescottQuestionable

    QB7DAL · bye 14 · market QB4

    -3
  63. 63

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB30JAX · bye 7 · market RB25

    -5
  64. 64

    Carnell TateR

    WR38TEN · bye 9 · market WR31

    -7
  65. 65

    Drake Maye

    QB5NE · bye 11

    —
  66. 66

    Jaylen Warren

    RB25PIT · bye 9 · market RB26

    +1
  67. 67

    Marvin Harrison Jr.

    WR30ARI · bye 14 · market WR32

    +2
  68. 68

    DJ Moore

    WR31BUF · bye 7 · market WR33

    +2
  69. 69

    Harold Fannin Jr.Questionable

    TE5CLE · bye 11

    —
  70. 70

    Sam LaPortaQuestionable

    TE6DET · bye 6

    —
  71. 71

    Rhamondre Stevenson

    RB27NE · bye 11

    —
  72. 72

    Michael Pittman

    WR32PIT · bye 9 · market WR34

    +2
  73. 73

    Parker Washington

    WR36JAX · bye 7 · market WR35

    -1
  74. 74

    Tucker KraftQuestionable

    TE7GB · bye 11

    —
  75. 75

    Tony Pollard

    RB29TEN · bye 9 · market RB28

    -1
  76. 76

    Courtland Sutton

    WR33DEN · bye 10 · market WR36

    +3
  77. 77

    Jadarian PriceR

    RB28SEA · bye 11 · market RB29

    +1
  78. 78

    Justin Herbert

    QB4LAC · bye 7 · market QB6

    +2
  79. 79

    Patrick MahomesQuestionable

    QB3KC · bye 5 · market QB7

    +4
  80. 80

    Chris Godwin Jr.

    WR39TB · bye 10 · market WR37

    -2
  81. 81

    Rico Dowdle

    RB33PIT · bye 9 · market RB30

    -3
  82. 82

    Chuba Hubbard

    RB32CAR · bye 5 · market RB31

    -1
  83. 83

    Michael Wilson

    WR37ARI · bye 14 · market WR38

    +1
  84. 84

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB13JAX · bye 7 · market QB8

    -5
  85. 85

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR35JAX · bye 7 · market WR39

    +4
  86. 86

    Jayden Reed

    WR41GB · bye 11 · market WR40

    -1
  87. 87

    Jordyn TysonRQuestionable

    WR45NO · bye 8 · market WR41

    -4
  88. 88

    Josh Downs

    WR42IND · bye 13

    —
  89. 89

    Kyle Pitts

    TE8ATL · bye 11

    —
  90. 90

    Jayden Daniels

    QB15WAS · bye 7 · market QB9

    -6
  91. 91

    Wan'Dale Robinson

    WR40TEN · bye 9 · market WR43

    +3
  92. 92

    RJ Harvey

    RB26DEN · bye 10 · market RB32

    +6
  93. 93

    Jared Goff

    QB2DET · bye 6 · market QB10

    +8
  94. 94

    Jordan Addison

    WR43MIN · bye 6 · market WR44

    +1
  95. 95

    J.K. Dobbins

    RB38DEN · bye 10 · market RB33

    -5
  96. 96

    Jalen Hurts

    QB11PHI · bye 10

    —
  97. 97

    Aaron Jones

    RB36MIN · bye 6 · market RB34

    -2
  98. 98

    Xavier WorthyQuestionable

    WR44KC · bye 5 · market WR45

    +1
  99. 99

    Romeo Doubs

    WR48NE · bye 11 · market WR46

    -2
  100. 100

    Quentin Johnston

    WR47LAC · bye 7

    —
  101. 101

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR46JAX · bye 7 · market WR48

    +2
  102. 102

    Khalil Shakir

    WR49BUF · bye 7

    —
  103. 103

    Brock Purdy

    QB16SF · bye 8 · market QB12

    -4
  104. 104

    Kenny Gainwell

    RB35TB · bye 10

    —
  105. 105

    Ricky Pearsall

    WR51SF · bye 8 · market WR50

    -1
  106. 106

    Travis Kelce

    TE9KC · bye 5

    —
  107. 107

    Rachaad White

    RB31WAS · bye 7 · market RB36

    +5
  108. 108

    Matthew Stafford

    QB14LAR · bye 11 · market QB13

    -1
  109. 109

    Kyle Monangai

    RB34CHI · bye 10 · market RB37

    +3
  110. 110

    George KittleQuestionable

    TE10SF · bye 8

    —
  111. 111

    Makai LemonRQuestionable

    WR54PHI · bye 10 · market WR51

    -3
  112. 112

    Caleb Williams

    QB10CHI · bye 10 · market QB14

    +4
  113. 113

    Matthew Golden

    WR52GB · bye 11

    —
  114. 114

    Jalen Coker

    WR53CAR · bye 5

    —
  115. 115

    Bo NixQuestionable

    QB9DEN · bye 10 · market QB15

    +6
  116. 116

    Jake Ferguson

    TE11DAL · bye 14

    —
  117. 117

    Jaxson Dart

    QB17NYG · bye 8 · market QB16

    -1
  118. 118

    Jayden Higgins

    WR50HOU · bye 8 · market WR54

    +4
  119. 119

    KC ConcepcionR

    WR57CLE · bye 11 · market WR55

    -2
  120. 120

    Dallas Goedert

    TE12PHI · bye 10

    —
  121. 121

    Blake Corum

    RB47LAR · bye 11 · market RB38

    -9
  122. 122

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt

    RB37WAS · bye 7 · market RB39

    +2
  123. 123

    Jonathon Brooks

    RB45CAR · bye 5 · market RB40

    -5
  124. 124

    Baker Mayfield

    QB12TB · bye 10 · market QB17

    +5
  125. 125

    Mark Andrews

    TE13BAL · bye 13

    —
  126. 126

    Jordan Love

    QB19GB · bye 11 · market QB18

    -1
  127. 127

    Jauan Jennings

    WR56MIN · bye 6

    —
  128. 128

    Rashid Shaheed

    WR55SEA · bye 11 · market WR57

    +2
  129. 129

    Omar Cooper Jr.R

    WR60NYJ · bye 13 · market WR58

    -2
  130. 130

    Jordan Mason

    RB44MIN · bye 6 · market RB41

    -3
  131. 131

    Dalton Kincaid

    TE14BUF · bye 7

    —
  132. 132

    Jalen Nailor

    WR64LV · bye 13 · market WR59

    -5
  133. 133

    Denzel BostonR

    WR67CLE · bye 11 · market WR60

    -7
  134. 134

    Tre Tucker

    WR59LV · bye 13 · market WR61

    +2
  135. 135

    Isaiah Likely

    TE15NYG · bye 8

    —
  136. 136

    Tyjae Spears

    RB43TEN · bye 9 · market RB42

    -1
  137. 137

    Jerry JeudyQuestionable

    WR58CLE · bye 11 · market WR62

    +4
  138. 138

    Woody Marks

    RB41HOU · bye 8 · market RB43

    +2
  139. 139

    Antonio WilliamsR

    WR92WAS · bye 7 · market WR63

    -29
  140. 140

    Juwan Johnson

    TE16NO · bye 8

    —
  141. 141

    Tyler Shough

    QB20NO · bye 8 · market QB19

    -1
  142. 142

    Jalen McMillan

    WR62TB · bye 10 · market WR64

    +2
  143. 143

    Tank Bigsby

    RB54PHI · bye 10 · market RB44

    -10
  144. 144

    Sam Darnold

    QB21SEA · bye 11 · market QB20

    -1
  145. 145

    Calvin Ridley

    WR63TEN · bye 9 · market WR65

    +2
  146. 146

    Brandon AiyukDNR

    WR61SF · bye 8 · market WR66

    +5
  147. 147

    T.J. Hockenson

    TE17MIN · bye 6

    —
  148. 148

    Kyler Murray

    QB25MIN · bye 6 · market QB21

    -4
  149. 149

    Malik Washington

    WR66MIA · bye 6 · market WR67

    +1
  150. 150

    Isiah Pacheco

    RB46DET · bye 6 · market RB45

    -1
  151. 151

    Alvin Kamara

    RB39NO · bye 8 · market RB46

    +7
  152. 152

    Rashod BatemanQuestionable

    WR68BAL · bye 13

    —
  153. 153

    C.J. Stroud

    QB18HOU · bye 8 · market QB22

    +4
  154. 154

    Hunter Henry

    TE18NE · bye 11

    —
  155. 155

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.Questionable

    RB66JAX · bye 7 · market RB47

    -19
  156. 156

    Tyrone Tracy Jr.

    RB40NYG · bye 8 · market RB48

    +8
  157. 157

    Zach CharbonnetQuestionable

    RB42SEA · bye 11 · market RB49

    +7
  158. 158

    Brenton Strange

    TE19JAX · bye 7

    —
  159. 159

    Oronde Gadsden II

    TE20LAC · bye 7

    —
  160. 160

    Keaton Mitchell

    RB64LAC · bye 7 · market RB50

    -14
  161. 161

    Adonai Mitchell

    WR72NYJ · bye 13 · market WR69

    -3
  162. 162

    Malik Willis

    QB40MIA · bye 6 · market QB23

    -17
  163. 163

    Cooper Kupp

    WR71SEA · bye 11 · market WR70

    -1
  164. 164

    Germie BernardR

    WR93PIT · bye 9 · market WR71

    -22
  165. 165

    Kenyon SadiqRQuestionable

    TE21NYJ · bye 13

    —
  166. 166

    Tank DellQuestionable

    WR65HOU · bye 8 · market WR72

    +7
  167. 167

    Chris BellRQuestionable

    WR97MIA · bye 6 · market WR73

    -24
  168. 168

    Daniel JonesQuestionable

    QB30IND · bye 13 · market QB24

    -6
  169. 169

    Chig Okonkwo

    TE22WAS · bye 7

    —
  170. 170

    Tyler Allgeier

    RB60ARI · bye 14 · market RB51

    -9
  171. 171

    Dalton Schultz

    TE23HOU · bye 8

    —
  172. 172

    Isaac TeSlaa

    WR70DET · bye 6 · market WR74

    +4
  173. 173

    Bryce Young

    QB26CAR · bye 5 · market QB25

    -1
  174. 174

    Fernando MendozaR

    QB29LV · bye 13 · market QB26

    -3
  175. 175

    AJ BarnerQuestionable

    TE24SEA · bye 11

    —
  176. 176

    Tre Harris

    WR78LAC · bye 7 · market WR75

    -3
  177. 177

    Troy Franklin

    WR69DEN

    +7
  178. 178

    Tua Tagovailoa

    QB22ATL

    +5
  179. 179

    Geno Smith

    QB23NYJ

    +4
  180. 180

    Cam Ward

    QB24TEN

    +3
  181. 181

    Chimere Dike

    WR73TEN

    +3
  182. 182

    A.T. Perry

    WR74PIT

    +2
  183. 183

    Jaylin Noel

    WR75HOU

    +1
  184. 184

    Pat Bryant

    WR76DEN

    —
  185. 185

    Marvin Mims Jr.

    WR77DEN

    -1
  186. 186

    Dylan Sampson

    RB48CLE

    +4
  187. 187

    Tez Johnson

    WR79TB

    -3
  188. 188

    Aaron Rodgers

    QB27PIT

    —
  189. 189

    Elic Ayomanor

    WR80TEN

    -4
  190. 190

    Keon Coleman

    WR81BUF

    -5
  191. 191

    Justin Fields

    QB28KC

    -1
  192. 192

    Tory HortonQuestionable

    WR82SEA

    -6
  193. 193

    Ty SimpsonR

    QB31LAR

    -4
  194. 194

    Brashard Smith

    RB49KC

    +3
  195. 195

    Jerome Ford

    RB50WAS

    +2
  196. 196

    Isaiah Bond

    WR83CLE

    -7
  197. 197

    Brian Robinson

    RB51ATL

    +1
  198. 198

    DeMario Douglas

    WR84NE

    -8
  199. 199

    Gunnar Helm

    TE25TEN

    —
  200. 200

    Sean Clifford

    QB32CIN

    -5

Showing the top 200 overall — position tabs go deeper. The CSV cheat sheet always includes the complete board.

Value badges compare our positional rank to the market's (ADP snapshot 2026-07-14). In the ALL view players follow market draft order — cross-position strategy is your league's call; the badges and tiers are ours.

Inside the machine — and its audited record

A word about "we simulated the season 10,000 times": anyone can run arithmetic ten thousand times — simulation volume is marketing, not skill. The only question that matters is whether a process beats the market out-of-sample, and that's the only thing we publish.

Every player gets a season projection built from opportunity and efficiency treated separately: projected touches and targets (sticky) times points-per-touch (regressed), with touchdown rates re-anchored to yardage — because last year's TD luck is the market's favorite mistake — plus team-level context computed from roster arithmetic: targets and carries vacated by departures, mouths added by arrivals and drafted rookies, and each offense's projected volume. Aging curves come from 14 years of data; rookies get draft-capital priors. Then we blend our ranking with live ADP per position, weights fit on recent seasons out-of-sample.

The honest results, because we tested a full decade and publish the losses: across ten replayed draft seasons (2015–2024) the blended board went 7–3 against drafting straight off ADP, averaging +0.78% more value per season (2024, the latest graded year: +2.49%out-of-sample). Three of the ten years were losses — they're in the published backtest, parameters and all, because a record you can't audit is marketing. The board leans on the model where it has earned trust (quarterbacks and running backs, after touchdown-luck correction) and defers to the market where it hasn't (the TE board is the market, on purpose). Floor and ceiling ranges come from real backtest errors, not vibes. Full methodology on the methodology page.

Two more things we publish because they're true: the decade backtest is graded in PPR scoring — re-graded without re-tuning, the same board is roughly market-even in half-PPR and standard (numbers in the published backtest), so treat the edge claim as a PPR claim. And we also built injury-history and QB-change features, tested them the same way, and rejected them when they failed out-of-sample — the lab log of every configuration we tried ships with the receipts. This board freezes with every weekly rebuild and gets graded against actual season results after the year — the same public accountability as our game predictions. Somewhere between a spreadsheet and a precog.