Today's Cards

Friday, November 6

One card per league: the teams most likely to win, four to seven of them, a prop card, and three tickets: the games, the props, and the best of both. Posted each morning (the NFL card the day before its games) and live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is graded in public that night. Every league keeps its own record, from Sep 30, 2026, and nothing is combined across sports.

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

No NFL games on the slate for Fri, Nov 6. This is the most recent NFL card, from Thu, Nov 5.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 2:53 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

1-0NFL picks1-1propsProps ticket MISS

NFL logoNFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first

1

JAX logoJAX@BAL logoBAL

Pick JAX79% to winat -500market 80%

HIT

Props ticket2 overs

MISS

Zay Flowers o3.5 receptions + Trevor Lawrence o193.5 passing yards

+105

fair odds

48.8%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

Over 193.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 222.4 · actual 242

HIT

Zay FlowersBAL · WR

Over 3.5 receptions · model 75% · projects 5.1 · actual 3

MISS

Changes before puck drop

  • 2:53 PM ET: JAX -535 to -550
  • 3:38 PM ET: JAX -550 to -535
  • 8:53 PM ET: JAX -535 to -520
  • 4:58 AM ET: JAX -520 to -535
  • 6:13 AM ET: JAX 78.1% to 79.5%
  • 6:58 AM ET: JAX -535 to -575
  • 10:48 AM ET: JAX -575 to -550
  • 2:53 PM ET: JAX -550 to -500, 79.5% to 79.0%

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

The NFL record, every NFL card, flat 1u per pick

How we grade →

Picks

30–16

Net units

-3.39u

ROI

-7.4%

Tickets

games 0–5

props 5–10

mixed 0–9

Props

31–16

2026-10-01 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -1.00u2026-10-04 · 5-2 · night -0.18u · total -1.18u2026-10-05 · 1-0 · night +1.10u · total -0.08u2026-10-08 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -1.08u2026-10-11 · 6-1 · night +1.44u · total +0.36u2026-10-12 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -0.64u2026-10-15 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -1.64u2026-10-18 · 4-3 · night -1.14u · total -2.78u2026-10-19 · 1-0 · night +0.26u · total -2.52u2026-10-22 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -3.52u2026-10-25 · 4-3 · night -0.99u · total -4.51u2026-10-26 · 1-0 · night +0.44u · total -4.06u2026-10-29 · 1-0 · night +0.54u · total -3.52u2026-11-01 · 6-1 · night +0.94u · total -2.59u2026-11-02 · 0-1 · night -1.00u · total -3.59u2026-11-05 · 1-0 · night +0.20u · total -3.39u

-3.39u all-time

By priceRecordUnits
Favorites (minus odds)29–14-2.49u
Dogs to +1501–2-0.90u
Dogs above +1500–00.00u

NFL cards only, since Thu, Oct 1. Flat one unit per pick at the line locked when its game started. Postponed legs void. Losses stay on the books, that's the point.

Recent NFL cards

11-020-111-016-110-291-010-261-010-254-310-220-110-191-010-184-310-150-110-120-1

Writing about tonight's slate? Drop the live cards into your post, they grade themselves.