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The Model Card

Thursday, September 10

One card a day: the machine's strongest disagreements with the market, plus the model parlay it would build from them. Frozen each morning, graded in public every night.

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

MLB

HOU logoHOU@PHI logoPHI

Pick HOU · model 42% · market +158

+5.16%
MLB

COL logoCOL@NYY logoNYY

Pick NYY · model 79% · market -338

+4.9%
MLB

PIT logoPIT@CWS logoCWS

Pick CWS · model 53% · market -112

+2.58%
MLB

TEX logoTEX@SEA logoSEA

Pick TEX · model 48% · market +108

+2.1%

The model parlay

HOU + NYY + CWS

+533

combined odds

17.6%

model probability

+11.4%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover6.5TEX @ SEAmodel 8.2

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

The ledger — every card, flat 1u per leg

How we grade →

Net units

-39.97u

ROI

-16.4%

Legs

89–155

Parlays

4–46

2026-07-10 · 2-2 · night +1.37u · total +1.37u2026-07-11 · 3-2 · night +3.12u · total +4.49u2026-07-12 · 3-2 · night +2.11u · total +6.60u2026-07-17 · 1-4 · night -2.60u · total +4.00u2026-07-18 · 3-2 · night +0.91u · total +4.91u2026-07-19 · 0-5 · night -5.00u · total -0.09u2026-07-20 · 2-3 · night -0.53u · total -0.62u2026-07-21 · 1-2 · night -0.73u · total -1.35u2026-07-22 · 3-2 · night +1.93u · total +0.58u2026-07-23 · 3-2 · night +1.26u · total +1.84u2026-07-24 · 2-3 · night -0.71u · total +1.13u2026-07-25 · 0-5 · night -5.00u · total -3.87u2026-07-26 · 0-4 · night -4.00u · total -7.87u2026-07-27 · 2-2 · night +0.09u · total -7.78u2026-07-28 · 4-1 · night +4.41u · total -3.37u2026-07-29 · 1-4 · night -3.31u · total -6.68u2026-07-30 · 2-3 · night -0.96u · total -7.64u2026-07-31 · 2-3 · night +0.02u · total -7.62u2026-08-01 · 3-2 · night +1.95u · total -5.66u2026-08-02 · 2-3 · night -0.63u · total -6.30u2026-08-03 · 3-2 · night +1.55u · total -4.75u2026-08-04 · 2-3 · night +0.13u · total -4.62u2026-08-05 · 1-4 · night -2.52u · total -7.14u2026-08-06 · 1-4 · night -2.90u · total -10.04u2026-08-07 · 2-3 · night +0.13u · total -9.91u2026-08-08 · 3-2 · night +2.05u · total -7.86u2026-08-09 · 1-4 · night -2.68u · total -10.54u2026-08-10 · 1-4 · night -2.69u · total -13.23u2026-08-11 · 0-5 · night -5.00u · total -18.23u2026-08-12 · 1-4 · night -3.06u · total -21.29u2026-08-13 · 3-2 · night +1.42u · total -19.87u2026-08-14 · 3-2 · night +2.69u · total -17.18u2026-08-15 · 2-2 · night +1.17u · total -16.01u2026-08-16 · 4-1 · night +4.43u · total -11.58u2026-08-17 · 2-3 · night -1.50u · total -13.08u2026-08-18 · 0-5 · night -5.00u · total -18.08u2026-08-19 · 1-4 · night -2.00u · total -20.08u2026-08-20 · 1-4 · night -2.36u · total -22.44u2026-08-21 · 0-5 · night -5.00u · total -27.44u2026-08-22 · 2-3 · night -0.26u · total -27.70u2026-08-23 · 1-4 · night -2.96u · total -30.66u2026-09-01 · 3-2 · night +0.87u · total -29.79u2026-09-02 · 1-4 · night -2.70u · total -32.49u2026-09-03 · 2-3 · night -0.15u · total -32.64u2026-09-04 · 2-3 · night -0.66u · total -33.30u2026-09-05 · 2-3 · night +0.32u · total -32.98u2026-09-06 · 1-4 · night -2.99u · total -35.97u2026-09-07 · 2-3 · night -0.71u · total -36.68u2026-09-08 · 2-3 · night -0.58u · total -37.26u2026-09-09 · 1-4 · night -2.71u · total -39.97u

-39.97u all-time

By priceRecordUnits
Favorites (minus odds)17–30-16.62u
Dogs to +15048–71-11.79u
Dogs above +15024–54-11.56u

Flat one unit per leg at the card's locked morning lines. Postponed legs void. Losses stay on the books — that's the point.

Writing about tonight's slate? Drop the live card into your post — it grades itself.

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