The Model Cards

Monday, October 19, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 7:13 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

1-0NFL picks2-0propsProps ticket HIT

NFL logoNFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first

1

WSH logoWSH@SF logoSF

Pick SF77% to winat -380market 76%

HIT

Props ticket2 overs

HIT

Brock Purdy o256.5 passing yards + Christian McCaffrey o54.5 rushing yards

+136

fair odds

42.4%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Brock PurdySF · QB

Over 256.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 294.8 · actual 264

HIT

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

Over 54.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 70.2 · actual 64

HIT

Changes before puck drop

  • 12:17 PM ET: SF -470 to -455
  • 4:52 AM ET: SF -455 to -440
  • 6:52 AM ET: SF -440 to -455
  • 8:52 AM ET: SF -455 to -410
  • 2:54 PM ET: SF -410 to -395
  • 4:09 PM ET: SF -395 to -380
  • 6:43 PM ET: SF 80.0% to 78.7%
  • 7:13 PM ET: SF 78.7% to 77.2%

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards
Model Cards, Monday, October 19, 2026 | Verdexed