The Record
We show our work — losses included.
Every pick is logged before it plays and graded in public. This is the whole receipt drawer: how often the model is right, whether it beats the closing line, how close its DFS projections land, and how its draft board has held up over a replayed decade. No cherry-picking — and the rules we grade ourselves by are written down on how we grade.
56.6%
Documented accuracy
258/456 graded picks · last 30d
+0.13%
Avg closing-line value
across 376 graded picks
7-3
Draft board vs the market
10 replayed drafts, losses published
Game predictions
Model win-probability accuracy, last 30 days.
| League | Accuracy | Graded | Avg conf. | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 56.7% | 409 | 56.9% | 0.2396 |
| NFL | 55.3% | 47 | 61.6% | 0.2564 |
Brier score measures calibration (lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip). How the model works → · Browse day-by-day results →
Closing-line value
Did the market move toward our pick after we logged it? Positive = we beat the close.
MLB
+0.14%
45.6% positive · n=375
NFL
-3.11%
0% positive · n=1
CLV accrues statistical signal faster than win/loss — it's the honest early read on whether the model moves markets' direction.
DFS projections
Projected vs actual DraftKings points.
| League | MAE | Corr. | Floor hit | Ceiling hold | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 5.35 | 0.309 | 62.6% | 91.6% | 8156 |
MAE = average points off per player. Lower is better; a mid-single-digit MAE with near-zero bias is a genuinely sharp projection.
Draft board
A decade of replayed drafts, graded against actual fantasy production.
7-3
vs ADP over 10 drafts (PPR)
+0.779%
avg edge vs the market
+2.49%
2024 (latest graded)
The 10-year extension showed the model is market-neutral over the full decade with its wins concentrated recently — we publish that honestly, not a cherry-picked window. See the live board →
This is the whole point.
Anyone can post winners after the fact. Verdexed logs every call before it plays and grades it in public — so you never have to take our word for it.