How we grade
A record only means something if the rules behind it are written down before the games are played. These are ours. They apply to the daily Model Card, the site-wide record, and the units ledger.
Picks lock at first pitch, leg by leg
The Model Cards, one per league, post at 11 AM ET once the morning lines are up, and stay live until each game starts: the part of the card whose games have not started follows the model's current numbers and lines, and every change before a lock is listed on the card. A leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop, at the line then on offer, and is never rebuilt, re-picked or edited after that; if a line moves after the lock, the card keeps the price it locked at, better or worse.
A card leg is the team most likely to win, the same served probability the record grades, ranked by that probability: four to seven picks on a normal slate, fewer on a short one. The prop card is up to five player overs at the line where the model gives the over at least 65%, graded against the official box score.
Game predictions are logged to the record before first pitch and scored only after the game goes final. Nothing enters the record retroactively.
What counts as a win or a loss
A moneyline pick wins if the picked team wins the game, including extra innings and overtime. There are no partial credits and no 'lean' escape hatches: every card leg is graded hit or miss.
The card's parlay is the whole card as one ticket and is graded as one bet: it hits only if every one of its legs hits. A ticket never mixes leagues.
Voids and postponements
A postponed or suspended game that doesn't go final voids the leg. Voided legs are excluded from the record and from the units ledger entirely, they are not counted as wins, losses, or stakes. A parlay containing a voided leg is graded on its remaining legs at their combined price.
The units ledger
Units are computed at a flat one unit per leg, at the moneyline stored on the card when it froze, not at closing lines, and not at the best line that existed at some point during the day. A win at +130 books +1.30 units; any loss books −1.00. This is the standard handicapping accounting, and it can't be inflated by imaginary stake sizing.
Return-on-investment is net units divided by units staked. Each league keeps its own ledger, and no number on the site ever combines leagues. The per-league ledgers run from Sep 30, 2026, when the cards were split by league and repointed at picks to win; the combined cards before that date are archived and count toward nothing. From there: no resets, no 'new season' amnesia, and losing streaks left visible.
Probabilities and fair odds
Model win probabilities shown on the site are the served blend of our model with the market at the time of computation. Where we show a 'fair' price for a probability, it is simply 1 divided by that probability, converted to American odds, no vig.
Closing-line value (CLV) compares the line at pick time to the last line captured before the game started. Positive CLV means the market moved toward our side after we picked it.
What we don't do
We don't delete losing cards, restate graded results, or lead with a hand-picked hot streak while the full ledger hides in a footnote. The full archive is public, every day is linkable, and the methodology behind the numbers, including backtests we ran that failed, is published.