How we grade
A record only means something if the rules behind it are written down before the games are played. These are ours. They apply to the daily Model Card, the site-wide record, and the units ledger.
Picks freeze before games start
The daily Model Card freezes at 11 AM ET, once the morning lines are posted, and is immutable after that. It is never rebuilt, re-picked, or edited intra-day — if a line moves after the freeze, the card keeps the price it was built at, better or worse.
Game predictions are logged to the record before first pitch and scored only after the game goes final. Nothing enters the record retroactively.
What counts as a win or a loss
A moneyline pick wins if the picked team wins the game, including extra innings and overtime. There are no partial credits and no 'lean' escape hatches: every card leg is graded hit or miss.
The card's parlay is graded as one bet: it hits only if every one of its legs hits.
Voids and postponements
A postponed or suspended game that doesn't go final voids the leg. Voided legs are excluded from the record and from the units ledger entirely — they are not counted as wins, losses, or stakes. A parlay containing a voided leg is graded on its remaining legs at their combined price.
The units ledger
Units are computed at a flat one unit per leg, at the moneyline stored on the card when it froze — not at closing lines, and not at the best line that existed at some point during the day. A win at +130 books +1.30 units; any loss books −1.00. This is the standard handicapping accounting, and it can't be inflated by imaginary stake sizing.
Return-on-investment is net units divided by units staked. The ledger runs from the first card ever published, with no resets, no 'new season' amnesia, and losing streaks left visible.
Probabilities and fair odds
Model win probabilities shown on the site are the served blend of our model with the market at the time of computation. Where we show a 'fair' price for a probability, it is simply 1 divided by that probability, converted to American odds — no vig.
Closing-line value (CLV) compares the line at pick time to the last line captured before the game started. Positive CLV means the market moved toward our side after we picked it.
What we don't do
We don't delete losing cards, restate graded results, or lead with a hand-picked hot streak while the full ledger hides in a footnote. The full archive is public, every day is linkable, and the methodology behind the numbers — including backtests we ran that failed — is published.