The Edge Board

Where the machine disagrees with the market. Our model grades every game across all four leagues, and these are today's biggest gaps between its win probability and the sportsbook's price. Value the books may be missing — not guarantees.

Lines as of 11:35 PM ET — prices move; check your book.

Model Market implied

MLB

SEA @ ATH

Model backs ATH · 51% to win · market +138

+11.08%

Strong

NFL

TB @ CIN

Model backs TB · 47% to win · market +164

+10.35%

Strong

MLB

PHI @ ATL

Model backs PHI · 48% to win · market +152

+9.85%

Strong

NFL

DAL @ NYG

Model backs DAL · 68% to win · market -162

+8.76%

Strong

MLB

SD @ SF

Model backs SF · 52% to win · market +118

+8.51%

Strong

NFL

SEA @ ARI

Model backs ARI · 27% to win · market +410

+8.39%

Strong

MLB

KC @ BOS

Model backs KC · 42% to win · market +168

+6.64%

Moderate

MLB

HOU @ TB

Model backs HOU · 45% to win · market +144

+5.41%

Moderate

NFL

JAX @ DEN

Model backs JAX · 47% to win · market +130

+5.38%

Moderate

MLB

COL @ DET

Model backs COL · 44% to win · market +149

+5.2%

Moderate

NFL

WSH @ DAL

Model backs WSH · 40% to win · market +170

+4.47%

Moderate

MLB

CWS @ STL

Model backs STL · 53% to win · market -107

+3.13%

Slight

This is the teaser board.

The per-league Edge Finder shows every edge with fair odds and Kelly stake sizing.

Edge Finder

What "edge" means here

For every upcoming game, the model produces a win probability independent of the betting market. We convert the sportsbook's moneyline into itsimplied probability and compare. When our number is meaningfully higher than the market's on a side, that gap — the "edge" — is where a bet has positive expected value if the model is right. Bigger gap, bigger rating. It's a starting point for research, not a lock.