The Edge Board

Where the machine disagrees with the market. Our model grades every game across all four leagues, and these are today's biggest gaps between its win probability and the sportsbook's price. Value the books may be missing, not guarantees.

Lines as of 6:32 PM ET, prices move; check your book.

Model Market implied
NBA logoNBA

SA @ PHX

Model backs PHX · 33% to win · market +296

+8.92%

Strong

NBA logoNBA

CLE @ CHA

Model backs CHA · 34% to win · market +282

+8.81%

Strong

NBA logoNBA

BOS @ PHI

Model backs BOS · 56% to win · market -109

+5.93%

Moderate

NFL logoNFL

BUF @ MIN

Model backs MIN · 42% to win · market +164

+5.42%

Moderate

NBA logoNBA

MIL @ NY

Model backs MIL · 15% to win · market +770

+4.44%

Moderate

NBA logoNBA

IND @ DAL

Model backs IND · 44% to win · market +143

+4.02%

Moderate

NHL logoNHL

DET @ STL

Model backs DET · 46% to win · market +124

+3.66%

Slight

NBA logoNBA

LAL @ ATL

Model backs ATL · 60% to win · market -144

+3.31%

Slight

NBA logoNBA

NO @ GS

Model backs NO · 21% to win · market +426

+3.12%

Slight

NBA logoNBA

WSH @ DET

Model backs WSH · 22% to win · market +394

+2.27%

Slight

NHL logoNHL

NYI @ SJS

Model backs SJS · 46% to win · market +120

+2.2%

Slight

NHL logoNHL

MIN @ MTL

Model backs MTL · 50% to win · market -102

+2%

None

This is the teaser board.

The per-league Edge Finder shows every edge with fair odds and Kelly stake sizing.

Edge Finder

What "edge" means here

For every upcoming game, the model produces a win probability independent of the betting market. We convert the sportsbook's moneyline into its implied probability and compare. When our number is meaningfully higher than the market's on a side, that gap - the "edge", is where a bet has positive expected value if the model is right. Bigger gap, bigger rating. It's a starting point for research, not a lock.