The Model Cards
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 5:37 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
ARI@
LAR
Pick LAR80% to winat -750market 85%
LAC@
KC
Pick KC78% to winat -425market 78%
NYJ@
NE
Pick NE76% to winat -345market 74%
TEN@
IND
Pick IND69% to winat -290market 71%
HOU@
JAX
Pick JAX67% to winat -148market 57%
BUF@
LV
Pick BUF67% to winat -245market 68%
DAL@
GB
Pick GB65% to winat -108market 50%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
MISSLAR + KC + NE + IND + JAX + BUF + GB
+1004
combined odds
9.6%
chance it all hits
+5.5%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
MISSKenneth Walker III o74.5 rushing yards + Bijan Robinson o67.5 rushing yards + Caleb Williams o256.5 passing yards + Matthew Stafford o331.5 passing yards + Josh Allen o235.5 passing yards
+736
fair odds
12.0%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
MISSLAR + KC + NE + Kenneth Walker III o74.5 + Bijan Robinson o67.5 + Caleb Williams o256.5
+539
combined odds
13.4%
chance it all hits
-14.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB
Over 256.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 295 · actual 305
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 67.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 87.6 · actual 61
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
Over 331.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 380.6 · actual 222
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 235.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 270.3 · actual 255
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB
Over 74.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 97.1 · actual 128
Changes before puck drop
- 12:32 PM ET: LAR -800 to -750; NE -340 to -345
- 5:41 PM ET: KC -440 to -410; NE -345 to -355; BUF -225 to -258
- 6:26 PM ET: GB -118 to -115
- 8:26 PM ET: LAR -750 to -800; KC -410 to -425; NE -355 to -345
- 10:26 PM ET: NE -345 to -355; JAX -148 to -142
- 12:26 AM ET: IND -340 to -325; JAX -142 to -148
- 1:56 AM ET: LAR -800 to -750; KC -425 to -410; NE -355 to -360
- 4:26 AM ET: LAR -750 to -800; KC -410 to -425; JAX -148 to -142
- 6:11 AM ET: NE 73.0% to 76.1%; BUF 66.7% to 67.2%
- 8:26 AM ET: IND -325 to -305; JAX -142 to -148
- 11:47 AM ET: IND 71.7% to 69.3%
- 12:17 PM ET: NE -360 to -345; IND -305 to -290; BUF -258 to -245
- 2:52 PM ET: LAR -800 to -750
- 4:52 PM ET: GB -115 to -112
- 5:37 PM ET: GB -112 to -108
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.