The Model Cards

Monday, October 12, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 7:08 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

0-1NFL picks2-0propsProps ticket HIT

NFL logoNFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first

1

BUF logoBUF@LAR logoLAR

Pick LAR60% to winat -185market 62%

MISS

Props ticket2 overs

HIT

Josh Allen o201.5 passing yards + Matthew Stafford o264.5 passing yards

+134

fair odds

42.6%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Matthew StaffordLAR · QB

Over 264.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 303.5 · actual 383

HIT

Josh AllenBUF · QB

Over 201.5 passing yards · model 66% · projects 232.3 · actual 210

HIT

Changes before puck drop

  • 12:17 PM ET: LAR -185 to -175
  • 6:52 PM ET: LAR -175 to -180
  • 12:52 AM ET: LAR -180 to -175
  • 5:01 AM ET: LAR -175 to -180
  • 6:01 AM ET: LAR 55.5% to 56.2%
  • 11:41 AM ET: LAR -180 to -175
  • 6:08 PM ET: LAR -175 to -185
  • 7:08 PM ET: LAR 56.0% to 59.7%

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards
Model Cards, Monday, October 12, 2026 | Verdexed