The Model Cards

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 1:08 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

4-3NFL picks2-3propsGames ticket MISSProps ticket MISSBest-of-both ticket MISS

NFL logoNFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first

1

IND logoIND@MIN logoMIN

Pick MIN79% to winat -325market 73%

HIT
2

NYG logoNYG@HOU logoHOU

Pick HOU78% to winat -520market 80%

MISS
3

CLE logoCLE@TEN logoTEN

Pick CLE68% to winat -135market 55%

HIT
4

SF logoSF@ATL logoATL

Pick SF66% to winat -148market 57%

MISS
5

TB logoTB@CAR logoCAR

Pick CAR60% to winat -166market 60%

MISS
6

DEN logoDEN@ARI logoARI

Pick DEN70% to winat -238market 68%

HIT
7

LAR logoLAR@LV logoLV

Pick LAR62% to winat -185market 62%

HIT

Games ticketall 7 picks to win

MISS

MIN + HOU + CLE + SF + CAR + DEN + LAR

+1494

combined odds

7.2%

chance it all hits

+15.6%

EV per $1

Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.

Props ticket5 overs

MISS

Matthew Stafford o263.5 passing yards + C.J. Stroud o281.5 passing yards + Brock Purdy o255.5 passing yards + Bijan Robinson o82.5 rushing yards + Jahmyr Gibbs o76.5 rushing yards

+747

fair odds

11.8%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props

MISS

MIN + HOU + DEN + Matthew Stafford o263.5 + Brock Purdy o255.5 + Bijan Robinson o82.5

+697

combined odds

12.0%

chance it all hits

-4.7%

EV per $1

The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

C.J. StroudHOU · QB

Over 281.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 323.9 · actual 153

MISS

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

Over 82.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 106.4 · actual 63

MISS

Brock PurdySF · QB

Over 255.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 293.6 · actual 288

HIT

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

Over 76.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 98.5 · actual 116

HIT

Matthew StaffordLAR · QB

Over 263.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 303.4 · actual 195

MISS

Changes before puck drop

  • 12:53 PM ET: LAR -175 to -180; NYJ -225 to -230
  • 2:53 PM ET: LAR -180 to -175; NYJ -230 to -225
  • 5:38 PM ET: NYJ -225 to -230
  • 6:53 PM ET: MIN -290 to -310; DEN -230 to -225; NYJ -230 to -218
  • 8:53 PM ET: HOU -500 to -520
  • 10:53 PM ET: MIN -310 to -325
  • 12:53 AM ET: HOU -520 to -500
  • 2:23 AM ET: HOU -500 to -520; SF -148 to -142
  • 4:53 AM ET: NYJ -218 to -225
  • 6:08 AM ET: MIN 77.0% to 78.2%; HOU 76.8% to 78.0%; CLE 68.7% to 69.2%; SF 67.8% to 66.9%
  • 8:53 AM ET: MIN -325 to -340; HOU -520 to -535; DEN -225 to -238; LAR -175 to -180; NYJ -225 to -218
  • 11:49 AM ET: CAR in (TB at CAR, 60.0% at -162); NYJ out (MIA at NYJ, now 59.4%); DEN 70.7% to 69.9%; CLE 69.2% to 68.3%; SF 66.9% to 66.3%
  • 12:19 PM ET: MIN -340 to -325; HOU -535 to -520; DEN -238 to -230; CLE -130 to -135; SF -142 to -148; LAR -180 to -185; CAR -162 to -166
  • 1:08 PM ET: DEN -230 to -238

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards
Model Cards, Sunday, October 25, 2026 | Verdexed