The Model Cards
Thursday, October 15, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 6:24 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
SEA@
DEN
Pick SEA51% to winat -148market 57%
Props ticket2 overs
HITJaxon Smith-Njigba o3.5 receptions + Sam Darnold o156.5 passing yards
-107
fair odds
51.6%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 3.5 receptions · model 79% · projects 5.4 · actual 12
Sam DarnoldSEA · QB
Over 156.5 passing yards · model 66% · projects 180.4 · actual 278
Changes before puck drop
- 11:39 AM ET: SEA -142 to -148
- 2:08 PM ET: SEA -148 to -142
- 6:24 PM ET: SEA -142 to -148
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.