The Model Cards
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 7:08 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
CAR@
GB
Pick GB63% to winat -185market 62%
Props ticket2 overs
MISSJosh Jacobs o53.5 rushing yards + Jordan Love o249.5 passing yards
+135
fair odds
42.6%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jordan LoveGB · QB
Over 249.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 286.6 · actual 288
Josh JacobsGB · RB
Over 53.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 69.2 · actual 39
Changes before puck drop
- 2:55 PM ET: GB -185 to -192
- 7:25 PM ET: GB -192 to -198
- 10:55 PM ET: GB -198 to -192
- 2:53 PM ET: GB -192 to -185
- 4:53 PM ET: GB -185 to -180
- 6:53 PM ET: GB -180 to -185
- 7:08 PM ET: GB 61.6% to 63.1%; prop in: Josh Jacobs over 53.5 rushing yards (65.3%); prop out: Tetairoa McMillan over 3.5 receptions
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.