The Model Cards

Monday, October 26, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 6:53 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

1-0NFL picks1-1propsProps ticket MISS

NFL logoNFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first

1

DAL logoDAL@PHI logoPHI

Pick DAL65% to winat -225market 66%

HIT

Props ticket2 overs

MISS

Javonte Williams o50.5 rushing yards + Dak Prescott o224.5 passing yards

+135

fair odds

42.6%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

Over 224.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 257.9 · actual 212

MISS

Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB

Over 50.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 65.4 · actual 155

HIT

Changes before puck drop

  • 12:19 PM ET: DAL -218 to -205
  • 1:08 PM ET: DAL -205 to -218
  • 8:53 PM ET: DAL -218 to -225
  • 12:53 AM ET: DAL -225 to -218
  • 6:53 AM ET: DAL -218 to -205
  • 8:53 AM ET: DAL -205 to -218
  • 11:42 AM ET: DAL -218 to -205
  • 11:57 AM ET: DAL 64.4% to 63.8%
  • 2:53 PM ET: DAL -205 to -218, 63.8% to 64.7%
  • 4:53 PM ET: DAL -218 to -205
  • 6:53 PM ET: DAL -205 to -225

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards