The Model Cards
Monday, November 2, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 2:54 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
CHI@
SEA
Pick SEA55% to winat -170market 60%
Props ticket2 overs
HITJaxon Smith-Njigba o5.5 receptions + Caleb Williams o167.5 passing yards
-100
fair odds
50.1%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
MISSSEA + Jaxon Smith-Njigba o5.5 + Caleb Williams o167.5
+217
combined odds
27.4%
chance it all hits
-13%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 5.5 receptions · model 77% · projects 7.6 · actual 6
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB
Over 167.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 192.3 · actual 247
Changes before puck drop
- 10:53 PM ET: SEA -166 to -170
- 12:53 AM ET: SEA -170 to -175
- 6:08 AM ET: SEA 54.0% to 55.0%
- 8:58 AM ET: SEA -175 to -170
- 10:58 AM ET: SEA -170 to -180
- 2:54 PM ET: SEA -180 to -170
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.