The Model Cards

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 6:53 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

6-1NFL picks3-2propsGames ticket MISSProps ticket MISSBest-of-both ticket MISS

NFL logoNFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first

1

TEN logoTEN@CIN logoCIN

Pick CIN82% to winat -900market 86%

HIT
2

IND logoIND@JAX logoJAX

Pick JAX77% to winat -485market 80%

HIT
3

NE logoNE@MIA logoMIA

Pick NE70% to winat -345market 74%

HIT
4

LAC logoLAC@LAR logoLAR

Pick LAR70% to winat -285market 71%

HIT
5

ARI logoARI@DAL logoDAL

Pick DAL63% to winat -340market 74%

MISS
6

BAL logoBAL@BUF logoBUF

Pick BUF60% to winat -162market 59%

HIT
7

PHI logoPHI@WSH logoWSH

Pick WSH70% to winat -278market 71%

HIT

Games ticketall 7 picks to win

MISS

CIN + JAX + NE + LAR + DAL + BUF + WSH

+565

combined odds

8.3%

chance it all hits

-44.8%

EV per $1

Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.

Props ticket5 overs

MISS

Puka Nacua o5.5 receptions + Josh Allen o201.5 passing yards + Joe Burrow o277.5 passing yards + Jacoby Brissett o272.5 passing yards + Dak Prescott o312.5 passing yards

+721

fair odds

12.2%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props

MISS

CIN + JAX + NE + Puka Nacua o5.5 + Josh Allen o201.5 + Jacoby Brissett o272.5

+503

combined odds

12.7%

chance it all hits

-23.3%

EV per $1

The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

Over 277.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 319.1 · actual 462

HIT

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

Over 312.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 358.8 · actual 195

MISS

Jacoby BrissettARI · QB

Over 272.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 312.9 · actual 119

MISS

Josh AllenBUF · QB

Over 201.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 232 · actual 289

HIT

Puka NacuaLAR · WR

Over 5.5 receptions · model 67% · projects 6.8 · actual 11

HIT

Changes before puck drop

  • 11:33 AM ET: DAL -305 to -310; BUF -170 to -166
  • 1:52 PM ET: WSH -250 to -258; BUF -166 to -170
  • 5:22 PM ET: NE -325 to -310; LAR -278 to -270; BUF -170 to -162
  • 6:37 PM ET: LAR -270 to -265
  • 9:22 PM ET: BUF -162 to -166
  • 2:44 AM ET: CIN -675 to -700; JAX -500 to -485; NE -310 to -340; LAR -265 to -258; DAL -310 to -325; BUF -166 to -170
  • 3:44 AM ET: CIN -700 to -750
  • 5:44 AM ET: CIN -750 to -850; DAL -325 to -310
  • 6:14 AM ET: CIN 81.0% to 81.7%; NE 71.9% to 70.2%; LAR 69.4% to 68.9%
  • 7:44 AM ET: CIN -850 to -800; WSH -258 to -278; DAL -310 to -325
  • 11:52 AM ET: WSH 69.3% to 70.3%
  • 12:22 PM ET: CIN -800 to -900; WSH -278 to -270; LAR -258 to -270; DAL -325 to -340; BUF -170 to -162
  • 2:53 PM ET: NE -340 to -345; LAR -270 to -285, 68.9% to 70.1%; prop in: Puka Nacua over 5.5 receptions (67.3%); prop out: Drake Maye over 231.5 passing yards
  • 6:53 PM ET: WSH -270 to -278

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards
Model Cards, Sunday, November 1, 2026 | Verdexed