The Model Cards
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 7:09 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
NE@
CHI
Pick NE54% to winat +130market 42%
Props ticket2 overs
HITCaleb Williams o195.5 passing yards + D'Andre Swift o59.5 rushing yards
+133
fair odds
42.9%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
MISSNE + Caleb Williams o195.5 + D'Andre Swift o59.5
+436
combined odds
23.1%
chance it all hits
+23.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB
Over 195.5 passing yards · model 66% · projects 225.4 · actual 308
D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB
Over 59.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 77 · actual 78
Changes before puck drop
- 6:09 AM ET: NE 51.0% to 52.9%
- 9:09 AM ET: prop in: D'Andre Swift over 61.5 rushing yards (65.3%); prop out: Drake Maye over 189.5 passing yards
- 7:09 PM ET: NE 52.9% to 53.8%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.