NFL Player Props: Model Projections & Lines
The featured NFL player props for the next slate: the model's projection for each stat, the line at which the over and under split evenly and its lean, plus a search for any player's full over/under projections from rolling game logs. Projections refresh each morning with the DFS run.
Featured board for Thursday, October 29: 14 players, 25 lines.
Featured props, model lines at the even split
| Player | Stat | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveQB | Passing yards | 292.5 | 50% | Even |
| Jordan LoveQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 46% | Even |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | Receptions | 5.5 | 52% | Even |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | Receiving yards | 77.5 | 50% | Even |
| Josh JacobsRB | Rushing yards | 64 | 51% | Even |
| Josh JacobsRB | Receptions | 3.5 | 36% | Under |
| Bryce YoungQB | Passing yards | 231 | 50% | Even |
| Bryce YoungQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 39% | Under |
| Christian WatsonWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 48% | Even |
| Christian WatsonWR | Receiving yards | 71.5 | 50% | Even |
| Matthew GoldenWR | Receptions | 5 | 48% | Even |
| Matthew GoldenWR | Receiving yards | 68.5 | 50% | Even |
| Chuba HubbardRB | Rushing yards | 65 | 50% | Even |
| Chuba HubbardRB | Receptions | 2.5 | 42% | Under |
| Jalen CokerWR | Receptions | 5.5 | 40% | Under |
| Jalen CokerWR | Receiving yards | 62.5 | 50% | Even |
| Tucker KraftTE | Receptions | 4.5 | 48% | Even |
| Tucker KraftTE | Receiving yards | 56 | 50% | Even |
| Savion WilliamsWR | Receptions | 3 | 43% | Under |
| Savion WilliamsWR | Receiving yards | 31 | 51% | Even |
| Tommy TrembleTE | Receptions | 2 | 55% | Even |
| Tommy TrembleTE | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 48% | Even |
| MarShawn LloydRB | Rushing yards | 29 | 50% | Even |
| Darren WallerTE | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 47% | Even |
| Brycen TremayneWR | Receiving yards | 18 | 49% | Even |
How to read this page
- The line shown is the model's own, set where the over and under are near coin flips. A book line well below it makes the over interesting; well above it, the under.
- Over and under percentages come from the spread of the player's recent outcomes around the projection, so high-variance players show wider splits than steady ones.
- Props are graded on the box score. The Model Card carries the day's best five and their record.