NFL Power RankingsWeek 9
The season projection blended with results so far, weighted by games played. Early on the roster projection dominates; by mid-season the record carries most of the weight.
2026 season · updated November 4, 2026 · moves vs October 29, 2026 · week-by-week archive
| # | Wk | Team | Rating | Proj W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ▲1 |  San Francisco 49ersSF | +1.59 | 12.9 |
| 2 | ▲2 |  Buffalo BillsBUF | +1.51 | 12.3 |
| 3 | ▼2 |  Minnesota VikingsMIN | +1.42 | 11.5 |
| 4 | ▲1 |  Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | +1.41 | 11.7 |
| 5 | ▲1 |  Chicago BearsCHI | +1.11 | 10.6 |
| 6 | ▲1 |  Cincinnati BengalsCIN | +1.04 | 10.6 |
| 7 | ▲1 |  Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | +0.98 | 10.6 |
| 8 | ▼5 |  Kansas City ChiefsKC | +0.97 | 11.2 |
| 9 | ▲2 |  Detroit LionsDET | +0.83 | 10.6 |
| 10 | ▼1 |  Denver BroncosDEN | +0.82 | 11.5 |
| 11 | ▲2 |  New England PatriotsNE | +0.54 | 9.9 |
| 12 | ▲3 |  Green Bay PackersGB | +0.47 | 10.5 |
| 13 | ▼3 |  Seattle SeahawksSEA | +0.25 | 9.5 |
| 14 | ▲2 |  New York GiantsNYG | +0.23 | 9.2 |
| 15 | ▲2 |  Los Angeles RamsLAR | +0.23 | 9.1 |
| 16 | ▼4 |  Cleveland BrownsCLE | +0.10 | 9.4 |
| 17 | ▲4 |  Las Vegas RaidersLV | -0.13 | 7.3 |
| 18 | ▼4 |  Baltimore RavensBAL | -0.14 | 9.0 |
| 19 | ▲3 |  Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | -0.15 | 7.6 |
| 20 | ▼1 |  Dallas CowboysDAL | -0.34 | 7.0 |
| 21 | ▼3 |  Carolina PanthersCAR | -0.34 | 7.6 |
| 22 | ▼2 |  Atlanta FalconsATL | -0.51 | 7.1 |
| 23 | – |  Houston TexansHOU | -0.56 | 8.3 |
| 24 | ▲5 |  Washington CommandersWSH | -0.85 | 5.8 |
| 25 | ▲3 |  Arizona CardinalsARI | -0.86 | 6.7 |
| 26 | – |  New Orleans SaintsNO | -0.91 | 6.2 |
| 27 | ▼3 |  New York JetsNYJ | -0.92 | 5.1 |
| 28 | ▼3 |  Indianapolis ColtsIND | -1.17 | 6.2 |
| 29 | ▼2 |  Philadelphia EaglesPHI | -1.28 | 4.8 |
| 30 | – |  Tennessee TitansTEN | -1.59 | 3.3 |
| 31 | – |  Miami DolphinsMIA | -1.63 | 4.3 |
| 32 | – |  Los Angeles ChargersLAC | -2.11 | 3.5 |
The top five, Week 9
- San Francisco 49ers top the board at +1.59, 6-1 with a +8.3 points per game margin, and a projection of 12.9 wins. The gap to Buffalo Bills is 0.08 rating points, close to a coin flip between the two. Up 1 from last week.
- Buffalo Bills sit second at +1.51, 6-1 with a +7.4 points per game margin, and a projection of 12.3 wins. Up 2 from last week.
- Minnesota Vikings sit third at +1.42, 6-1 with a +6.7 points per game margin, and a projection of 11.5 wins. Down 2 from last week.
- Jacksonville Jaguars sit fourth at +1.41, 5-2 with a +12.1 points per game margin, and a projection of 11.7 wins. Up 1 from last week.
- Chicago Bears sit fifth at +1.11, 6-2 with a +6.8 points per game margin, and a projection of 10.6 wins. Up 1 from last week.
Movers
Biggest riser: Washington Commanders, up 5 to #24. Biggest faller: Kansas City Chiefs, down 5 to #8. Moves are measured against the October 29, 2026 snapshot.
How the rating works
Every team starts the season at its projection: the daily simulation plays each roster through its actual schedule thousands of times, checked against the market's win totals, and that expected-wins figure is standardized against the league. As games are played, results (win percentage, scoring differential per game, last-10 form) blend in, weighted by games played, so a 1-0 week does not leapfrog a roster and a 6-2 start does move a team up. Positive means above average; the gap between two teams is a real strength difference, not a gut ranking.
Questions
How are the NFL power rankings computed?
Every team starts the season at its projection: a daily simulation plays each roster through its actual schedule thousands of times, checked against the market's win totals, and the expected-wins figure is standardized against the league. As games are played, results (win percentage, scoring differential per game, last-10 form) blend in, weighted by games played, so one week never leapfrogs a roster on its own.
How often are they updated?
Every day. The season projection is recomputed each morning, the ranking refreshes hourly, and one snapshot a day is kept. The page is titled by the week it precedes: the Tuesday after Week 4 shows the Week 5 rankings.
What does the rating number mean?
Standard deviations above (positive) or below (negative) the league average. A gap of 1.00 between two teams is a full standard deviation of strength, not a gut ordering; a gap of 0.10 is a coin flip.
Is this a prediction of who wins the NFL title?
No. The ranking is a strength read today. The projected standings page runs 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season for each team's projected record and best-record odds, and the playoff odds page turns that into a make-the-playoffs probability, last run November 4, 2026.