NFL Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-08-03.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Buffalo BillsBUF	0-0	10.5(3–17)	9.0%
2	Seattle SeahawksSEA	0-0	10.4(2–17)	8.3%
3	Minnesota VikingsMIN	0-0	10.4(3–17)	8.1%
4	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	0-0	10.3(3–17)	7.4%
5	Baltimore RavensBAL	0-0	10.0(2–17)	5.5%
6	San Francisco 49ersSF	0-0	9.9(2–17)	5.2%
7	Detroit LionsDET	0-0	9.9(2–17)	5.1%
8	Los Angeles RamsLAR	0-0	9.7(2–16)	4.4%
9	New England PatriotsNE	0-0	9.6(1–18)	3.9%
10	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	0-0	9.6(3–17)	3.7%
11	Houston TexansHOU	0-0	9.5(2–17)	3.5%
12	New Orleans SaintsNO	0-0	9.4(2–17)	3.4%
13	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	0-0	9.4(2–16)	3.4%
14	Denver BroncosDEN	0-0	9.4(2–17)	3.2%
15	Kansas City ChiefsKC	0-0	9.3(2–16)	3.0%
16	Dallas CowboysDAL	0-0	9.2(2–17)	2.8%
17	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	0-0	9.1(2–16)	2.8%
18	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	0-0	9.1(1–16)	2.4%
19	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	0-0	9.0(1–17)	2.3%
20	Atlanta FalconsATL	0-0	8.9(2–17)	2.3%
21	Green Bay PackersGB	0-0	8.7(1–17)	1.8%
22	Cleveland BrownsCLE	0-0	8.4(1–16)	1.2%
23	Washington CommandersWSH	0-0	8.4(1–16)	1.2%
24	Miami DolphinsMIA	0-0	8.4(1–17)	1.2%
25	Chicago BearsCHI	0-0	8.3(1–17)	1.2%
26	New York GiantsNYG	0-0	8.0(1–16)	0.9%
27	Tennessee TitansTEN	0-0	8.1(0–16)	0.8%
28	Indianapolis ColtsIND	0-0	8.0(0–16)	0.8%
29	Carolina PanthersCAR	0-0	7.7(1–16)	0.5%
30	Las Vegas RaidersLV	0-0	7.7(1–15)	0.5%
31	Arizona CardinalsARI	0-0	7.7(0–15)	0.2%
32	New York JetsNYJ	0-0	7.1(1–16)	0.2%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NFL power rankings Standings