NFL Projected Standings & Title OddsWeek 9

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities, to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-11-03.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Buffalo BillsBUF	6-1	12.3(7–16)	19.2%
2	San Francisco 49ersSF	6-1	12.9(6–16)	32.6%
3	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	5-2	11.7(6–15)	8.7%
4	Denver BroncosDEN	6-2	11.5(6–15)	7.3%
5	Minnesota VikingsMIN	6-1	11.5(6–16)	9.9%
6	Kansas City ChiefsKC	5-2	11.2(5–15)	6.4%
7	Chicago BearsCHI	6-2	10.6(6–15)	2.9%
8	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	5-2	10.6(5–15)	2.9%
9	Detroit LionsDET	5-2	10.6(5–15)	2.8%
10	Green Bay PackersGB	5-3	10.5(5–14)	1.8%
11	New York GiantsNYG	4-2	9.2(4–14)	0.9%
12	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	6-2	10.6(6–15)	2.7%
13	New England PatriotsNE	5-3	9.9(5–14)	1.0%
14	Cleveland BrownsCLE	5-3	9.4(5–14)	0.4%
15	Baltimore RavensBAL	4-4	9.0(4–13)	0.1%
16	Seattle SeahawksSEA	4-4	9.5(4–13)	0.2%
17	Los Angeles RamsLAR	4-4	9.1(4–13)	0.1%
18	Carolina PanthersCAR	3-4	7.6(3–13)	0.0%
19	Atlanta FalconsATL	3-5	7.1(3–12)	0.0%
20	Houston TexansHOU	2-5	8.3(3–12)	0.0%
21	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	3-5	7.6(3–12)	0.0%
22	Dallas CowboysDAL	3-5	7.0(3–12)	0.0%
23	New Orleans SaintsNO	2-5	6.2(2–12)	0.0%
24	Las Vegas RaidersLV	4-4	7.3(4–13)	0.0%
25	Arizona CardinalsARI	3-5	6.7(3–12)	0.0%
26	Washington CommandersWSH	2-4	5.8(2–12)	0.0%
27	Indianapolis ColtsIND	2-6	6.2(2–11)	0.0%
28	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	2-6	4.8(2–11)	0.0%
29	New York JetsNYJ	2-6	5.1(2–10)	0.0%
30	Miami DolphinsMIA	1-6	4.3(1–10)	0.0%
31	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	0-7	3.5(0–10)	0.0%
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	1-7	3.3(1–9)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record, a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NFL power rankings Playoff odds Standings

Questions

How are the NFL projected standings computed?

Starting from the current standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a weighted coin flip at the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins about 60% of the simulations. The projected win total is the average finish, the range is the middle of the simulated outcomes, and best-record odds are the share of simulations in which the team finishes first.

How often is it updated?

Every morning, after the previous night's results and the day's line moves are in (last run November 3, 2026). The power rankings page blends the same projection with results to date, and the playoff odds page turns it into a make-the-playoffs probability.

What is the difference between projected wins and best-record odds?

Projected wins is the average final record across the simulations. Best-record odds is how often the team ends with the most wins in the league, which rewards a high ceiling more than a safe floor; two teams with the same projected wins can have very different title odds.