NFL Projected Standings & Title Odds
We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-08-02.
| # | Team | Proj. wins | Best-record odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 11.1 | 13.3% |
| 2 | Buffalo BillsBUF | 10.7 | 9.9% |
| 3 | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 10.6 | 8.5% |
| 4 | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 10.5 | 7.9% |
| 5 | Baltimore RavensBAL | 9.9 | 4.9% |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ersSF | 9.9 | 4.8% |
| 7 | New Orleans SaintsNO | 9.9 | 4.8% |
| 8 | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 9.6 | 3.8% |
| 9 | New England PatriotsNE | 9.6 | 3.7% |
| 10 | Detroit LionsDET | 9.7 | 3.6% |
| 11 | Atlanta FalconsATL | 9.5 | 3.4% |
| 12 | Houston TexansHOU | 9.5 | 3.2% |
| 13 | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 9.5 | 3.0% |
| 14 | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 9.3 | 3.0% |
| 15 | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 9.3 | 2.9% |
| 16 | Denver BroncosDEN | 9.3 | 2.4% |
| 17 | Dallas CowboysDAL | 9.2 | 2.4% |
| 18 | Miami DolphinsMIA | 9.1 | 2.2% |
| 19 | Kansas City ChiefsKC | 9.0 | 1.9% |
| 20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | 9.0 | 1.9% |
| 21 | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 8.9 | 1.8% |
| 22 | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 8.6 | 1.4% |
| 23 | Washington CommandersWSH | 8.3 | 0.9% |
| 24 | Green Bay PackersGB | 8.1 | 0.9% |
| 25 | Tennessee TitansTEN | 8.1 | 0.7% |
| 26 | Las Vegas RaidersLV | 7.8 | 0.5% |
| 27 | New York GiantsNYG | 7.8 | 0.5% |
| 28 | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 7.6 | 0.5% |
| 29 | Arizona CardinalsARI | 8.0 | 0.4% |
| 30 | Chicago BearsCHI | 7.6 | 0.4% |
| 31 | Carolina PanthersCAR | 7.2 | 0.2% |
| 32 | New York JetsNYJ | 6.9 | 0.2% |
How the projection works
Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.