NFL Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities, to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-09-19.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1-0	12.3(5–17)	22.5%
2	Buffalo BillsBUF	2-0	11.9(5–17)	17.3%
3	Baltimore RavensBAL	1-0	11.4(3–17)	11.5%
4	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1-0	11.1(3–17)	8.8%
5	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1-0	11.0(4–17)	7.8%
6	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1-0	10.8(3–17)	6.7%
7	San Francisco 49ersSF	1-0	10.7(4–17)	5.8%
8	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1-0	10.2(3–17)	3.3%
9	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1-0	9.8(3–17)	2.7%
10	New England PatriotsNE	0-1	9.8(3–16)	2.3%
11	Detroit LionsDET	1-1	10.0(4–16)	2.1%
12	Los Angeles RamsLAR	0-1	9.7(2–15)	2.1%
13	Houston TexansHOU	0-1	9.6(3–16)	2.0%
14	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1-0	9.5(2–17)	1.8%
15	Chicago BearsCHI	1-0	9.3(2–16)	1.6%
16	Denver BroncosDEN	0-1	8.6(2–15)	0.6%
17	New York GiantsNYG	1-0	8.3(2–16)	0.4%
18	Green Bay PackersGB	0-1	7.7(1–15)	0.1%
19	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	0-1	7.6(1–15)	0.1%
20	Atlanta FalconsATL	0-1	7.5(1–15)	0.1%
21	New Orleans SaintsNO	0-1	7.4(0–14)	0.1%
22	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	0-1	7.3(1–15)	0.1%
23	Dallas CowboysDAL	0-1	7.0(0–15)	0.1%
24	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1-0	6.8(1–14)	0.0%
25	Indianapolis ColtsIND	0-1	6.7(0–14)	0.0%
26	Washington CommandersWSH	0-1	6.7(0–14)	0.0%
27	Arizona CardinalsARI	1-0	6.3(1–13)	0.0%
28	New York JetsNYJ	1-0	6.2(1–13)	0.0%
29	Cleveland BrownsCLE	0-1	5.7(0–13)	0.0%
30	Carolina PanthersCAR	0-1	5.4(0–12)	0.0%
31	Miami DolphinsMIA	0-1	5.0(0–12)	0.0%
32	Tennessee TitansTEN	0-1	4.7(0–12)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record, a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NFL power rankings Standings