NFL Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-08-02.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Minnesota VikingsMIN	0-0	11.1(4–17)	13.3%
2	Buffalo BillsBUF	0-0	10.7(3–18)	9.9%
3	Seattle SeahawksSEA	0-0	10.6(3–18)	8.5%
4	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	0-0	10.5(2–18)	7.9%
5	Baltimore RavensBAL	0-0	9.9(3–17)	4.9%
6	San Francisco 49ersSF	0-0	9.9(1–18)	4.8%
7	New Orleans SaintsNO	0-0	9.9(3–17)	4.8%
8	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	0-0	9.6(2–17)	3.8%
9	New England PatriotsNE	0-0	9.6(1–17)	3.7%
10	Detroit LionsDET	0-0	9.7(2–17)	3.6%
11	Atlanta FalconsATL	0-0	9.5(2–17)	3.4%
12	Houston TexansHOU	0-0	9.5(1–17)	3.2%
13	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	0-0	9.5(2–17)	3.0%
14	Los Angeles RamsLAR	0-0	9.3(2–17)	3.0%
15	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	0-0	9.3(2–17)	2.9%
16	Denver BroncosDEN	0-0	9.3(2–17)	2.4%
17	Dallas CowboysDAL	0-0	9.2(1–17)	2.4%
18	Miami DolphinsMIA	0-0	9.1(2–17)	2.2%
19	Kansas City ChiefsKC	0-0	9.0(1–17)	1.9%
20	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	0-0	9.0(1–17)	1.9%
21	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	0-0	8.9(2–16)	1.8%
22	Cleveland BrownsCLE	0-0	8.6(2–16)	1.4%
23	Washington CommandersWSH	0-0	8.3(1–17)	0.9%
24	Green Bay PackersGB	0-0	8.1(0–16)	0.9%
25	Tennessee TitansTEN	0-0	8.1(1–16)	0.7%
26	Las Vegas RaidersLV	0-0	7.8(1–16)	0.5%
27	New York GiantsNYG	0-0	7.8(0–16)	0.5%
28	Indianapolis ColtsIND	0-0	7.6(0–16)	0.5%
29	Arizona CardinalsARI	0-0	8.0(1–15)	0.4%
30	Chicago BearsCHI	0-0	7.6(1–15)	0.4%
31	Carolina PanthersCAR	0-0	7.2(0–16)	0.2%
32	New York JetsNYJ	0-0	6.9(0–15)	0.2%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NFL power rankings Standings