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NFL Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-08-03.

#TeamProj. winsBest-record odds
1Buffalo BillsBUF10.59.0%
2Seattle SeahawksSEA10.48.3%
3Minnesota VikingsMIN10.48.1%
4Philadelphia EaglesPHI10.37.4%
5Baltimore RavensBAL10.05.5%
6San Francisco 49ersSF9.95.2%
7Detroit LionsDET9.95.1%
8Los Angeles RamsLAR9.74.4%
9New England PatriotsNE9.63.9%
10Cincinnati BengalsCIN9.63.7%
11Houston TexansHOU9.53.5%
12New Orleans SaintsNO9.43.4%
13Jacksonville JaguarsJAX9.43.4%
14Denver BroncosDEN9.43.2%
15Kansas City ChiefsKC9.33.0%
16Dallas CowboysDAL9.22.8%
17Los Angeles ChargersLAC9.12.8%
18Pittsburgh SteelersPIT9.12.4%
19Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB9.02.3%
20Atlanta FalconsATL8.92.3%
21Green Bay PackersGB8.71.8%
22Cleveland BrownsCLE8.41.2%
23Washington CommandersWSH8.41.2%
24Miami DolphinsMIA8.41.2%
25Chicago BearsCHI8.31.2%
26New York GiantsNYG8.00.9%
27Tennessee TitansTEN8.10.8%
28Indianapolis ColtsIND8.00.8%
29Carolina PanthersCAR7.70.5%
30Las Vegas RaidersLV7.70.5%
31Arizona CardinalsARI7.70.2%
32New York JetsNYJ7.10.2%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.