NHL Picks for November 5: TBL 68% Leads a 11-Game Board

11 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-05. The firmest call is TBL at 68% over CHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 148-102 (59.2%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

TBL over CHI: we make it 68%, the market 78% (a 10-point gap).

Game by game

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 68%

The model has TBL at 68% against a market price of 78%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.9 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), back to back (+6.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.6 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: TBL is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

CHI starter: Arvid Soderblom (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected).

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche: COL 66%

The model has COL at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.0 points), venue (+3.8 points), goal margin (+3.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.1 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.

NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.

Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets: WPG 65%

The model has WPG at 65% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.7 points), expected goals (+3.1 points), head to head (+2.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.5 points). The line is WPG -1.5, total 6.5.

VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner. WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey.

St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils: NJD 64%

The model has NJD at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: expected goals (+5.0 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.5 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5.

STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker. NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck (likely).

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders: CAR 62%

The model has CAR at 62% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.4 points), expected goals (+6.3 points), goal margin (+5.2 points). The case against is rest (-3.1 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 5.5.

CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin. NYI starter: Semyon Varlamov. NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Pulock, Matias Maccelli.

Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 61%

The model has EDM at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: goal margin (+5.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.3 points), expected goals (+3.2 points). The case against is recent form (-1.2 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.

ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula.

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers: NYR 57%

The model has NYR at 57% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: expected goals (+5.3 points), goal margin (+5.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 17 games in) (-2.2 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 5.5.

PHI starter: Joseph Woll (likely). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.

Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings: VGK 56%

The model has VGK at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.9 points), goal margin (+2.8 points), head to head (+1.9 points). The case against is time zone (-0.5 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 5.5.

VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (likely). DET out: John Gibson, Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson.

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets: DAL 54%

The model has DAL at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: expected goals (+3.9 points), goal margin (+3.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.3 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.2 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 5.5.

DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot.

Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens: UTA 52%

The model has UTA at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.0 points), expected goals (+4.9 points), venue (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 16 games in) (-4.1 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Sebastian Cossa (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins: PIT 51%

The model has PIT at 51% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.1 points), shot share (Corsi) (+1.8 points), recent form (+1.7 points). The case against is goal margin (-5.7 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 6.5.

BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). PIT starter: Arturs Silovs. PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

4 games, the model went 3-1. The market favourite went 3-1.

The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.

The firmest calls: FLA 68% over CHI (hit), LAK 58% over SJS (hit), SEA 55% over CGY (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through November 4: 148-102 (59.2%), Brier 0.231; market favourites 151-99 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 53-22.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 148 of 250 (59.2%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

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