NHL2026-11-01NHL Picks for November 1: CAR 68% Leads a 5-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
5 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-01. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over WPG; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 137-89 (60.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG at CAR | CAR | 68% | 70% | -2 | -278 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | CAR -278 |
| UTA at PHI | UTA | 61% | 62% | -1 | -185 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | UTA -185 |
| EDM at NYR | NYR | 54% | 54% | -1 | -130 | NYR -1.5 | 6.5 | NYR -130 |
| OTT at ANA | OTT | 51% | 52% | -1 | -118 | OTT -1.5 | 6.5 | OTT -118 |
| MIN at WSH | WSH | 50.2% | 49.6% | +1 | -108 | MIN -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 68%
The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.3 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), expected goals (+6.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.6 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| WPG | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-7-3 | 11-2-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.9 | +1.3 |
| Home / road | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W3 |
| Last five | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov. CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jackson Blake | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Kyle Connor | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers: UTA 61%
The model has UTA at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.0 points), expected goals (+7.0 points), goal margin (+6.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (-6.0 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| UTA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5 | 3-8-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.4 | -1.5 |
| Home / road | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 0 wins |
UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone. PHI starter: Dan Vladar (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Trevor Zegras | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Logan Cooley | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matvei Michkov | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | blocked shots | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers: NYR 54%
The model has NYR at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.5 points), schedule load (+2.1 points). The case against is goal margin (-4.1 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.
| EDM | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2-2 | 7-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | +0.1 |
| Home / road | 6-0 | 6-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 1 | 6 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
EDM starter: Matt Tomkins. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | blocked shots | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks: OTT 51%
The model has OTT at 51% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points), venue (+4.1 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 6.5.
| OTT | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5-1 | 5-7-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | -0.5 |
| Home / road | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
OTT starter: Jonas Johansson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Andre Burakovsky, Hayden Hodgson, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. ANA starter: Laurent Brossoit. ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | assists | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Dylan Cozens | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tim Stützle | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cutter Gauthier | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals: WSH 50.2%
The model has WSH at 50.2% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: goalies (+1.7 points), high-danger chances (+1.7 points), shot margin (+1.7 points). The case against is expected goals (-4.9 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5.
| MIN | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3-3 | 8-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.8 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| Streak | O1 | W3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley | UTA | 0.85 | 57% | -134 | -119 |
| Drake Batherson | OTT | 0.78 | 54% | -118 | -106 |
| Matvei Michkov | PHI | 0.75 | 53% | -112 | -101 |
| Logan Stankoven | CAR | 0.73 | 52% | -107 | +103 |
| Alex Tuch | WSH | 0.71 | 51% | -103 | +107 |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Dylan Cozens | OTT | 0.65 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | NYR | 0.57 | 43% | +130 | +143 |
| Mark Jankowski | CAR | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Tim Stützle | OTT | 0.52 | 40% | +147 | +160 |
| Kyle Connor | WPG | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
Yesterday's board
10 games, the model went 9-1. The market favourite went 9-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY at COL | COL | 68% | 68% | 78% | COL 5-2 | Hit | COL -380 (hit) |
| CHI at BOS | BOS | 67% | 63% | 68% | BOS 5-4 | Hit | BOS -238 (hit) |
| TOR at VAN | TOR | 62% | 58% | 63% | TOR 4-2 | Hit | TOR -192 (hit) |
| CBJ at DAL | DAL | 62% | 58% | 63% | DAL 3-1 | Hit | DAL -185 (hit) |
| TBL at NSH | TBL | 60% | 59% | 60% | NSH 5-4 | Miss | TBL -180 (miss) |
| OTT at SJS | OTT | 54% | 51% | 55% | OTT 5-1 | Hit | - |
| BUF at LAK | BUF | 54% | 52% | 54% | BUF 3-2 | Hit | - |
| PIT at MTL | MTL | 54% | 55% | 53% | MTL 5-4 | Hit | - |
| EDM at NYI | EDM | 51% | 53% | 51% | EDM 4-0 | Hit | - |
| STL at DET | STL | 51% | 47% | 52% | STL 5-4 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: STL at DET: the model took DET (53%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick hit. COL over CGY: model 68%, market 78%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. DAL over CBJ: model 58%, market 63%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: COL 68% over CGY (hit), BOS 67% over CHI (hit), TOR 62% over VAN (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-1 on its 5 legs here.
Season to date through October 31: 137-89 (60.6%), Brier 0.231; market favourites 139-87 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 48-19.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 137 of 226 (60.6%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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