NHL2026-10-28NHL Picks for October 28: WSH 66% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-28. The firmest call is WSH at 66% over PHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 116-82 (58.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.235.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at WSH | WSH | 66% | 67% | -1 | -230 | WSH -1.5 | 6.5 | WSH -230 |
| CGY at EDM | EDM | 63% | 63% | 0 | -192 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 | EDM -192 |
| NJD at COL | COL | 58% | 57% | +1 | -148 | COL -1.5 | 6.5 | COL -148 |
| TOR at SEA | TOR | 54% | 55% | -1 | -135 | TOR -1.5 | 6.5 | TOR -135 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals: WSH 66%
The model has WSH at 66% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: back to back (+6.6 points), rest (+5.9 points), goal margin (+5.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 14 games in) (-3.4 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.
| PHI | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-7-4 | 6-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.4 | +0.2 |
| Home / road | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Streak | O1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Logan Thompson, Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Trevor Zegras | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matvei Michkov | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | blocked shots | 1.9 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Strome | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Strome | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 63%
The model has EDM at 63% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: goal margin (+5.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (+4.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.1 points). The case against is goalies (-2.2 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.
| CGY | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-6 | 8-2-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.2 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | O1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
CGY starter: Devin Cooley. CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Joel Farabee | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matvei Gridin | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche: COL 58%
The model has COL at 58% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: back to back (+7.2 points), rest (+6.4 points), venue (+4.1 points). The case against is expected goals (-3.8 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.
| NJD | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-4 | 6-5-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
NJD starter: Jake Allen. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (likely). COL out: Zachary L'Heureux.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 4 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | assists | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Artturi Lehkonen | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | assists | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken: TOR 54%
The model has TOR at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: venue (+3.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 14 games in) (+2.0 points). The case against is rest (-3.2 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5.
| TOR | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-5-2 | 7-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Marshall Rifai. SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| William Nylander | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jack Roslovic | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Easton Cowan | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 0.99 | 63% | -169 | -148 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 0.90 | 59% | -146 | -129 |
| Matvei Michkov | PHI | 0.67 | 49% | +105 | +116 |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| William Nylander | TOR | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | NJD | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Alex Tuch | WSH | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Matvei Gridin | CGY | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0.54 | 42% | +140 | +152 |
| Cole Knuble | PHI | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Joel Farabee | CGY | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
Yesterday's board
11 games, the model went 5-6. The market favourite went 5-6.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at ANA | ANA | 64% | 64% | 64% | VAN 6-5 | Miss | ANA -218 (miss) |
| BOS at CAR | CAR | 63% | 63% | 63% | CAR 2-1 | Hit | CAR -192 (hit) |
| OTT at VGK | VGK | 59% | 60% | 59% | VGK 4-1 | Hit | VGK -162 (hit) |
| BUF at SJS | BUF | 56% | 53% | 56% | BUF 2-0 | Hit | BUF -148 (hit) |
| FLA at WPG | FLA | 55% | 56% | 54% | FLA 5-1 | Hit | - |
| NJD at DAL | DAL | 53% | 54% | 53% | NJD 5-1 | Miss | - |
| MIN at UTA | UTA | 53% | 54% | 53% | MIN 3-1 | Miss | - |
| CBJ at PHI | CBJ | 53% | 51% | 53% | CBJ 4-3 | Hit | - |
| LAK at CHI | LAK | 53% | 53% | 53% | CHI 2-1 | Miss | - |
| NYI at NSH | NSH | 53% | 52% | 53% | NYI 4-3 | Miss | - |
| MTL at STL | STL | 52% | 49% | 53% | MTL 2-0 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: MTL at STL: the model took MTL (51%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed.
The firmest calls: ANA 64% over VAN (miss), CAR 63% over BOS (hit), VGK 59% over OTT (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 27: 116-82 (58.6%), Brier 0.235; market favourites 118-80 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 37-17.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 116 of 198 (58.6%), Brier score 0.235. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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