NHL2026-10-20NHL Picks for October 20: CAR 68% Leads a 11-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
11 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-20. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 86-54 (61.4%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at VAN | CAR | 68% | 72% | -4 | -298 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | CAR -298 |
| SJS at MTL | MTL | 63% | 64% | -1 | -205 | MTL -1.5 | 6.5 | MTL -205 |
| BOS at DAL | DAL | 60% | 60% | -1 | -170 | DAL -1.5 | 5.5 | DAL -170 |
| LAK at WSH | WSH | 59% | 59% | -1 | -162 | WSH -1.5 | 5.5 | WSH -162 |
| TOR at CBJ | CBJ | 59% | 59% | -1 | -162 | CBJ -1.5 | 6.5 | CBJ -162 |
| ANA at NYI | NYI | 57% | 58% | -1 | -155 | NYI -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| WPG at STL | STL | 57% | 57% | 0 | -148 | STL -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| MIN at EDM | EDM | 55% | 55% | 0 | -135 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| TBL at VGK | VGK | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| DET at SEA | SEA | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | SEA -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| COL at NJD | COL | 50.3% | 50.0% | 0 | -110 | NJD -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
CAR over VAN: we make it 68%, the market 72% (a 4-point gap).
Game by game
Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks: CAR 68%
The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 72%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.8 points), expected goals (+13.5 points), goal margin (+7.2 points). The case against is recent form (-4.4 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| CAR | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2-1 | 2-7-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | -1.5 |
| Home / road | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Mark Jankowski, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Linus Karlsson | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake DeBrusk | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 63%
The model has MTL at 63% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: back to back (+6.8 points), rest (+6.1 points), expected goals (+5.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) (-4.3 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.
| SJS | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4-1 | 4-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (likely). MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars: DAL 60%
The model has DAL at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) (+4.8 points), venue (+2.6 points), recent form (+2.2 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.8 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 5.5.
| BOS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 4-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| Home / road | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W5 | W2 |
| Last five | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Luke Krys.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jason Robertson | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Poitras | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Fraser Minten | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Fraser Minten | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals: WSH 59%
The model has WSH at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.4 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 6 games in) (+2.6 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is recent form (-7.1 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 5.5.
| LAK | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4-2 | 5-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -2.2 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Last five | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (likely). WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Justin Sourdif, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandt Clarke | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | blocked shots | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Logan Thompson | saves | 27.2 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Logan Thompson | goals against | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Boone Jenner | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Boone Jenner | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adrian Kempe | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 59%
The model has CBJ at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: back to back (+7.1 points), rest (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 10 games in) (-7.0 points). The line is CBJ -1.5, total 6.5.
| TOR | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4-2 | 3-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| William Nylander | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | blocked shots | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Kirill Marchenko | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Darren Raddysh | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Darren Raddysh | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders: NYI 57%
The model has NYI at 57% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: back to back (+7.2 points), rest (+6.4 points), goal margin (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-4.6 points). The line is NYI -1.5, total 5.5.
| ANA | NYI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 4-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.2 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
ANA starter: Lukas Dostal. ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mikael Granlund | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Ilya Sorokin | saves | 24 | 21.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Ilya Sorokin | goals against | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Kyle Palmieri | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues: STL 57%
The model has STL at 57% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.3 points), recent form (+1.9 points), expected goals (+1.9 points). The case against is head to head (-1.9 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.
| WPG | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2-2 | 3-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Home / road | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko, Ross Johnston.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mason McTavish | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mark Scheifele | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mark Scheifele | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Dylan Holloway | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 55%
The model has EDM at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: shot margin (+2.7 points), goal margin (+2.5 points), venue (+2.5 points). The case against is expected goals (-2.9 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.
| MIN | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2-1 | 6-1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Nico Sturm, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta. EDM starter: Devon Levi (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 51%
The model has VGK at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: goal margin (+4.8 points), venue (+2.3 points), power play (+2.0 points). The case against is time zone (-2.3 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.
| TBL | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 8-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.5 | +1.8 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Brandon Hagel | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jake Guentzel | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken: SEA 51%
The model has SEA at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.1 points), shot margin (+2.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 8 games in) (+2.0 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-5.0 points). The line is SEA -1.5, total 6.5.
| DET | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3-2 | 5-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.5 | +0.4 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
DET starter: Daniil Tarasov. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher. SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Daniil Tarasov | saves | 25.1 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Daniil Tarasov | goals against | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | blocked shots | 2.9 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils: COL 50.3%
The model has COL at 50.3% against a market price of 50.0%. What drives it: goal margin (+4.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) (+3.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.3 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5.
| COL | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3-1 | 4-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | -0.2 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
COL starter: Scott Wedgewood. COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, Logan O'Connor, Zachary L'Heureux. NJD starter: Jake Allen.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Scott Wedgewood | saves | 24.1 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Scott Wedgewood | goals against | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 1.10 | 67% | -200 | -173 |
| Matt Boldy | MIN | 0.83 | 56% | -129 | -115 |
| Brandon Hagel | TBL | 0.82 | 56% | -127 | -114 |
| Kyle Connor | WPG | 0.79 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0.73 | 52% | -107 | +103 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.69 | 49.8% | +101 | +111 |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Matthew Poitras | BOS | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Boone Jenner | WSH | 0.59 | 45% | +124 | +136 |
| Nico Hischier | NJD | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
Yesterday's board
4 games, the model went 3-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at PHI | COL | 67% | 67% | 68% | PHI 3-2 | Miss | COL -238 (miss) |
| PIT at UTA | UTA | 61% | 57% | 62% | UTA 5-4 | Hit | UTA -185 (hit) |
| ANA at NYR | NYR | 55% | 49% | 56% | NYR 5-2 | Hit | NYR -155 (hit) |
| SJS at TOR | TOR | 54% | 51% | 55% | TOR 3-1 | Hit | TOR -135 (hit) |
Where the model and the market split: ANA at NYR: the model took ANA (51%), the market NYR; the served pick was NYR and the pick hit. UTA over PIT: model 57%, market 62%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: COL 67% over PHI (miss), UTA 61% over PIT (hit), NYR 55% over ANA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 19: 86-54 (61.4%), Brier 0.230; picks at 60% or better are 27-9.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 86 of 140 (61.4%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
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