NHL2026-10-19NHL Picks for October 19: COL 67% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-19. The firmest call is COL at 67% over PHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 83-53 (61.0%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at PHI | COL | 67% | 68% | 0 | -238 | COL -1.5 | 6.5 | COL -238 |
| PIT at UTA | UTA | 61% | 62% | -1 | -185 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | UTA -185 |
| ANA at NYR | NYR | 55% | 56% | -2 | -142 | NYR -1.5 | 6.5 | NYR -142 |
| SJS at TOR | TOR | 54% | 55% | -1 | -135 | TOR -1.5 | 6.5 | TOR -135 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers: COL 67%
The model has COL at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (+13.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+9.8 points), goal margin (+8.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.4 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.
| COL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2-1 | 1-6-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.5 | -2.0 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, Logan O'Connor, Zachary L'Heureux. PHI starter: Joseph Woll. PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 4.3 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | blocked shots | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Joseph Woll | saves | 29.6 | 27.5 or lower | 30.5 or higher |
| Joseph Woll | goals against | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brock Nelson | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth: UTA 61%
The model has UTA at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (+7.9 points), goal margin (+3.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.7 points). The case against is recent form (-2.8 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| PIT | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-5-1 | 6-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.4 | +0.7 |
| Home / road | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 2 wins |
PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sidney Crosby | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Evgeni Malkin | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers: NYR 55%
The model has NYR at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (+3.9 points), goalies (+3.0 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.3 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.
| ANA | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| Home / road | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | O1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. NYR starter: Dylan Garand (likely). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Garand | saves | 21.3 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Dylan Garand | goals against | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cutter Gauthier | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Beckett Sennecke | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs: TOR 54%
The model has TOR at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+2.7 points), injuries (+2.2 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is head to head (-2.3 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5.
| SJS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-1 | 3-4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | O1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (likely). TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Kirill Marchenko | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Roslovic | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Darren Raddysh | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Darren Raddysh | blocked shots | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.67 | 49% | +105 | +116 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | NYR | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Beckett Sennecke | ANA | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Sidney Crosby | PIT | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Kirill Marchenko | TOR | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
| Evgeni Malkin | PIT | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Will Cuylle | NYR | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Cutter Gauthier | ANA | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Bryan Rust | PIT | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
Yesterday's board
2 games, the model went 1-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at CGY | CAR | 64% | 59% | 66% | CGY 3-2 | Miss | CAR -218 (miss) |
| CBJ at MIN | MIN | 61% | 58% | 62% | MIN 2-1 | Hit | MIN -192 (hit) |
Where the model and the market split: CAR over CGY: model 59%, market 66%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: CAR 64% over CGY (miss), MIN 61% over CBJ (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-1 on its 2 legs here.
Season to date through October 18: 83-53 (61.0%), Brier 0.229; picks at 60% or better are 26-8.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 83 of 136 (61.0%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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