NHL2026-10-18NHL Picks for October 18: CAR 64% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-18. The firmest call is CAR at 64% over CGY; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 82-52 (61.2%) on graded picks, Brier 0.229.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at CGY | CAR | 64% | 66% | -2 | -218 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | CAR -218 |
| CBJ at MIN | MIN | 62% | 63% | -1 | -192 | MIN -1.5 | 6.5 | MIN -192 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames: CAR 64%
The model has CAR at 64% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (+11.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+10.0 points), goal margin (+9.2 points). The case against is recent form (-7.3 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| CAR | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1-1 | 1-6 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.4 | -3.0 |
| Home / road | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W7 | L1 |
| Last five | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
CAR starter: Brandon Bussi. CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Aydar Suniev | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Aydar Suniev | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild: MIN 62%
The model has MIN at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: back to back (+7.0 points), rest (+6.2 points), expected goals (+4.6 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.0 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5.
| CBJ | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 5-2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.7 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CBJ starter: Cam Talbot (projected). MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Nico Sturm, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | assists | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jesper Wallstedt | saves | 24.6 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Jesper Wallstedt | goals against | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.92 | 60% | -151 | -133 |
| Matt Boldy | MIN | 0.79 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | CAR | 0.73 | 52% | -107 | +103 |
| Mark Jankowski | CAR | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Kent Johnson | CBJ | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Logan Stankoven | CAR | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Aydar Suniev | CGY | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| Sebastian Aho | CAR | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
| Morgan Frost | CGY | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
| Danila Yurov | MIN | 0.32 | 27% | +265 | +284 |
| Adam Klapka | CGY | 0.28 | 24% | +310 | +331 |
| Damon Severson | CBJ | 0.26 | 23% | +337 | +360 |
Yesterday's board
14 games, the model went 9-5.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at TBL | TBL | 68% | 64% | 77% | TBL 4-2 | Hit | TBL -395 (hit) |
| DAL at CHI | DAL | 65% | 62% | 66% | DAL 4-0 | Hit | DAL -218 (hit) |
| PIT at VGK | VGK | 64% | 63% | 64% | VGK 6-2 | Hit | VGK -205 (hit) |
| CAR at WPG | CAR | 64% | 62% | 64% | CAR 3-2 | Hit | CAR -205 (hit) |
| SEA at FLA | FLA | 61% | 57% | 62% | FLA 8-3 | Hit | FLA -185 (hit) |
| OTT at PHI | OTT | 59% | 61% | 58% | PHI 3-1 | Miss | OTT -155 (miss) |
| SJS at DET | DET | 58% | 55% | 58% | DET 4-3 | Hit | - |
| BOS at LAK | LAK | 55% | 56% | 55% | BOS 4-1 | Miss | - |
| NYR at CBJ | CBJ | 55% | 56% | 55% | CBJ 1-0 | Hit | - |
| EDM at UTA | UTA | 55% | 54% | 55% | EDM 6-2 | Miss | - |
| BUF at MTL | MTL | 55% | 51% | 56% | MTL 4-3 | Hit | - |
| NYI at TOR | TOR | 53% | 48% | 54% | NYI 4-1 | Miss | - |
| NJD at WSH | WSH | 52% | 49.9% | 52% | WSH 4-2 | Hit | - |
| STL at NSH | STL | 52% | 53% | 51% | NSH 5-2 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: NYI at TOR: the model took NYI (52%), the market TOR; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. NJD at WSH: the model took NJD (50.1%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick hit. TBL over VAN: model 64%, market 77%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. FLA over SEA: model 57%, market 62%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. MTL over BUF: model 51%, market 56%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: TBL 68% over VAN (hit), DAL 65% over CHI (hit), VGK 64% over PIT (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 5-1 on its 6 legs here.
Season to date through October 17: 82-52 (61.2%), Brier 0.229; picks at 60% or better are 25-7.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 82 of 134 (61.2%), Brier score 0.229. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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