NHL Picks for October 10: NJD 68% Leads a 14-Game Board

14 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-10. The firmest call is NJD at 68% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 41-28 (59.4%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

NJD over VAN: we make it 68%, the market 72% (a 4-point gap).

Game by game

Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils: NJD 68%

The model has NJD at 68% against a market price of 72%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.4 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.1 points), rest (+3.0 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. NJD starter: Jake Allen (projected).

Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks: CAR 68%

The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.9 points), shot share (corsi) (+12.0 points), goal margin (+6.3 points). The case against is streak (-8.5 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 5.5.

CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Andrew Mangiapane.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche: COL 66%

The model has COL at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+10.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+9.6 points), goal margin (+6.0 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.7 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.

TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor.

Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 61%

The model has MTL at 61% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: back to back (+7.0 points), rest (+6.6 points), home/road split (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.7 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

DET starter: Daniil Tarasov. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins: DAL 60%

The model has DAL at 60% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: back to back (+7.1 points), rest (+6.6 points), motivation (+4.4 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.

DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (likely). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys, Joel Kiviranta. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders: TBL 59%

The model has TBL at 59% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.5 points), shot share (corsi) (+3.4 points), home/road split (+3.2 points). The case against is streak (-5.7 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 5.5.

TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov.

Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 59%

The model has VGK at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.9 points), recent form (+4.3 points), power play (+3.6 points). The case against is streak (-9.5 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.

LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected). VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Victor Olofsson.

Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators: OTT 59%

The model has OTT at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.9 points), motivation (+4.9 points), shot share (corsi) (+3.5 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.5 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 5.5.

NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). NSH out: Justus Annunen. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Artem Zub, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund.

Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks: EDM 58%

The model has EDM at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), venue (+5.7 points), motivation (+4.5 points). The case against is streak (-5.8 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.

EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Colton Dach, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (projected).

Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins: BOS 55%

The model has BOS at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: goal margin (+7.5 points), venue (+4.2 points), power play (+3.7 points). The case against is streak (-8.0 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 5.5.

PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected).

Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers: FLA 55%

The model has FLA at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.2 points). The case against is streak (-5.9 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 5.5.

MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Nick Foligno. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.

Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues: STL 54%

The model has STL at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.9 points), motivation (+5.0 points). The case against is head to head (-4.3 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.

CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected). STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko.

Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames: ANA 51%

The model has ANA at 51% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: goal margin (+9.3 points), recent form (+6.9 points), shot share (corsi) (+3.6 points). The case against is streak (-10.9 points). The line is ANA -1.5, total 6.5.

ANA starter: Ville Husso (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau.

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres: BUF 50.1%

The model has BUF at 50.1% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: schedule load (+1.2 points), penalty kill (+1.0 points). The case against is goal margin (-4.7 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. BUF starter: Colten Ellis (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

4 games, the model went 2-2.

Where the model and the market split: ANA at WPG: the model took ANA (50.0%), the market WPG; the served pick was WPG and the pick missed.

The firmest calls: WSH 56% over NYR (hit), DET 56% over SEA (miss), WPG 52% over ANA (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-2 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through October 9: 41-28 (59.4%), Brier 0.234; picks at 60% or better are 10-2.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 41 of 69 (59.4%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.