NHL Picks for October 17: TBL 68% Leads a 14-Game Board

14 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-17. The firmest call is TBL at 68% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 73-47 (60.8%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

TBL over VAN: we make it 68%, the market 77% (a 9-point gap).

Game by game

Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 68%

The model has TBL at 68% against a market price of 77%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.1 points), goalies (+4.2 points), goal margin (+4.1 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.8 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 9-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern. TBL starter: Dennis Hildeby (projected).

Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks: DAL 65%

The model has DAL at 65% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.4 points), venue (+4.6 points), power play (+4.4 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-2.2 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.

DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys. CHI starter: Spencer Knight. CHI out: Bowen Byram, Andrew Mangiapane.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 64%

The model has VGK at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: back to back (+6.8 points), rest (+6.3 points), goal margin (+4.0 points). The case against is goalies (-1.8 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.

PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon.

Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets: CAR 64%

The model has CAR at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.7 points), shot share (corsi) (+7.8 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is venue (-2.7 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.

CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. WPG starter: Clay Stevenson (likely). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Vladislav Namestnikov, Elias Salomonsson, Josh Morrissey, Walker Duehr.

Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers: FLA 61%

The model has FLA at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.8 points), shot share (corsi) (+5.9 points), venue (+3.2 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.9 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 6.5.

SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Radko Gudas, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.

Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers: OTT 59%

The model has OTT at 59% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.0 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.4 points). The case against is recent form (-1.6 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 5.5.

OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Jake Sanderson, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Travis Konecny.

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings: DET 58%

The model has DET at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.6 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.8 points), time zone (+1.1 points). The case against is venue (-1.5 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 6.5.

SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (projected). DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, David Perron, J.T. Compher.

Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings: LAK 55%

The model has LAK at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.6 points). The case against is goal margin (-6.8 points). The line is LAK -1.5, total 5.5.

BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (projected).

New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 55%

The model has CBJ at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.0 points), rest (+3.4 points), recent form (+1.4 points). The case against is goal margin (-4.1 points). The line is CBJ -1.5, total 6.5.

NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (likely).

Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 55%

The model has MTL at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: rest (+2.3 points), power play (+2.0 points), head to head (+1.8 points). The case against is venue (-4.0 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk, Rasmus Dahlin. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth: UTA 55%

The model has UTA at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.7 points), goalies (+2.8 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.8 points). The case against is power play (-4.5 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Colton Dach, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone.

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs: TOR 53%

The model has TOR at 53% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: power play (+2.6 points), venue (+2.1 points), shot margin (+0.9 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-4.5 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5.

NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood.

St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators: STL 52%

The model has STL at 52% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.1 points), goal margin (+2.2 points), high-danger chances (+1.3 points). The case against is power play (-2.9 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.

STL starter: Jordan Binnington (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko. NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected).

New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals: WSH 51%

The model has WSH at 51% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: rest (+2.3 points), schedule load (+1.2 points), goal margin (+0.7 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.6 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.

NJD starter: Jake Allen. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Justin Sourdif, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

2 games, the model went 2-0.

Where the model and the market split: BOS at ANA: the model took ANA (50.1%), the market BOS; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit.

The firmest calls: COL 62% over PIT (hit), BOS 50.3% over ANA (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-0 on its 2 legs here.

Season to date through October 16: 73-47 (60.8%), Brier 0.231; picks at 60% or better are 20-7.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 73 of 120 (60.8%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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