NHL2026-10-16NHL Picks for October 16: COL 62% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-16. The firmest call is COL at 62% over PIT; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 71-47 (60.2%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at COL | COL | 62% | 63% | -1 | -192 | COL -1.5 | 6.5 | COL -192 |
| BOS at ANA | BOS | 50.3% | 50.4% | 0 | -112 | BOS -1.5 | 6.5 | BOS -112 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche: COL 62%
The model has COL at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+5.0 points), venue (+4.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.1 points). The case against is power play (-3.3 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.
| PIT | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3-1 | 4-2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | O1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Sidney Crosby | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brock Nelson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brock Nelson | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jaden Schwartz | shots on goal | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks: BOS 50.3%
The model has BOS at 50.3% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: venue (+4.6 points), power play (+2.6 points), goal margin (+2.4 points). The case against is head to head (-3.9 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 6.5.
| BOS | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.4 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Beckett Sennecke | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Fraser Minten | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Morgan Geekie | shots on goal | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Cale Makar | COL | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Fraser Minten | BOS | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Jaden Schwartz | COL | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Pavel Zacha | BOS | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 0.42 | 34% | +192 | +207 |
| Beckett Sennecke | ANA | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Martin Necas | COL | 0.40 | 33% | +203 | +219 |
| Brock Nelson | COL | 0.39 | 32% | +210 | +226 |
| Bryan Rust | PIT | 0.39 | 32% | +210 | +226 |
| Sidney Crosby | PIT | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| Morgan Geekie | BOS | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
Yesterday's board
11 games, the model went 7-4.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY at VGK | VGK | 68% | 64% | 73% | VGK 6-2 | Hit | VGK -285 (hit) |
| VAN at FLA | FLA | 68% | 63% | 72% | FLA 3-2 | Hit | FLA -298 (hit) |
| SEA at TBL | TBL | 67% | 63% | 69% | TBL 4-3 | Hit | TBL -278 (hit) |
| NYI at OTT | OTT | 57% | 55% | 58% | OTT 2-1 | Hit | OTT -162 (hit) |
| WPG at CHI | WPG | 57% | 61% | 55% | CHI 4-3 | Miss | - |
| PHI at DET | DET | 56% | 57% | 56% | DET 2-1 | Hit | - |
| SJS at NSH | NSH | 56% | 55% | 56% | SJS 3-2 | Miss | - |
| NYR at NJD | NJD | 56% | 55% | 56% | NJD 7-1 | Hit | - |
| STL at MIN | MIN | 55% | 51% | 56% | MIN 5-4 | Hit | - |
| UTA at EDM | EDM | 52% | 50.0% | 53% | UTA 4-2 | Miss | - |
| BUF at TOR | TOR | 50.0% | 45% | 52% | BUF 5-4 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: BUF at TOR: the model took BUF (55%), the market TOR; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. UTA at EDM: the model took UTA (50.0%), the market EDM; the served pick was EDM and the pick missed. FLA over VAN: model 63%, market 72%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. VGK over CGY: model 64%, market 73%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. TBL over SEA: model 63%, market 69%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. WPG over CHI: model 61%, market 55%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: VGK 68% over CGY (hit), FLA 68% over VAN (hit), TBL 67% over SEA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-0 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 15: 71-47 (60.2%), Brier 0.231; picks at 60% or better are 19-7.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 71 of 118 (60.2%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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