NHL2026-10-11NHL Picks for October 11: NYR 68% Leads a 3-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
![Capitals vs Rangers photodesk [1296x729]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fphoto%2F2026%2F0405%2Fr1639114_1296x729_16-9.jpg&w=1920&q=75)
3 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-11. The firmest call is NYR at 68% over VAN; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 51-32 (61.4%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYR | NYR | 68% | 70% | -2 | -265 | NYR -1.5 | 6.5 | NYR -265 |
| CAR at PHI | CAR | 65% | 66% | 0 | -218 | CAR -1.5 | 5.5 | CAR -218 |
| SEA at WSH | WSH | 64% | 66% | -2 | -218 | WSH -1.5 | 6.5 | WSH -218 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers: NYR 68%
The model has NYR at 68% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: back to back (+6.4 points), rest (+6.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points). The case against is recent form (-0.9 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.
| VAN | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.2 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (likely). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Garand | saves | 27.4 | 25.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Dylan Garand | goals against | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake DeBrusk | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Elias Pettersson | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Elias Pettersson | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers: CAR 65%
The model has CAR at 65% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.2 points), shot share (corsi) (+8.3 points), goal margin (+6.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.2 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 5.5.
| CAR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1-1 | 0-4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | -2.8 |
| Home / road | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L3 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Taylor Hall | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jackson Blake | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals: WSH 64%
The model has WSH at 64% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points), shot share (corsi) (+2.5 points), penalty kill (+1.9 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.5 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.
| SEA | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.4 | +1.2 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Rasmus Sandin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Tom Wilson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tom Wilson | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | CAR | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Alex Tuch | WSH | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | NYR | 0.59 | 45% | +124 | +136 |
| Logan Stankoven | CAR | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | CAR | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Mackie Samoskevich | SEA | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | NYR | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Taylor Hall | CAR | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Gabe Perreault | NYR | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Tom Wilson | WSH | 0.40 | 33% | +203 | +219 |
| Bobby McMann | SEA | 0.40 | 33% | +203 | +219 |
| Jordan Eberle | SEA | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
Yesterday's board
14 games, the model went 10-4.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NJD | NJD | 68% | 63% | 72% | NJD 4-1 | Hit | NJD -298 (hit) |
| CAR at CHI | CAR | 68% | 66% | 68% | CAR 5-2 | Hit | CAR -258 (hit) |
| TOR at COL | COL | 66% | 65% | 66% | TOR 6-3 | Miss | COL -218 (miss) |
| DET at MTL | MTL | 61% | 56% | 64% | MTL 1-0 | Hit | MTL -198 (hit) |
| DAL at PIT | DAL | 60% | 57% | 62% | PIT 2-1 | Miss | DAL -180 (miss) |
| TBL at NYI | TBL | 59% | 57% | 60% | TBL 5-3 | Hit | TBL -180 (hit) |
| LAK at VGK | VGK | 59% | 57% | 59% | VGK 2-1 | Hit | VGK -170 (hit) |
| NSH at OTT | OTT | 59% | 57% | 59% | OTT 3-2 | Hit | - |
| EDM at SJS | EDM | 58% | 57% | 58% | EDM 3-1 | Hit | - |
| PHI at BOS | BOS | 55% | 55% | 55% | BOS 5-1 | Hit | - |
| MIN at FLA | FLA | 55% | 54% | 55% | MIN 4-1 | Miss | - |
| CBJ at STL | STL | 54% | 53% | 54% | STL 5-3 | Hit | - |
| ANA at CGY | ANA | 51% | 48% | 53% | ANA 4-2 | Hit | - |
| UTA at BUF | BUF | 50.1% | 49.5% | 50.4% | UTA 4-1 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: ANA at CGY: the model took CGY (52%), the market ANA; the served pick was ANA and the pick hit. UTA at BUF: the model took UTA (50.5%), the market BUF; the served pick was BUF and the pick missed. NJD over VAN: model 63%, market 72%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. MTL over DET: model 56%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: NJD 68% over VAN (hit), CAR 68% over CHI (hit), COL 66% over TOR (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 5-2 on its 7 legs here.
Season to date through October 10: 51-32 (61.4%), Brier 0.231; picks at 60% or better are 13-4.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 51 of 83 (61.4%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.