NHL2026-10-09NHL Picks for October 9: WSH 56% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-09. The firmest call is WSH at 56% over NYR; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 39-26 (60.0%) on graded picks, Brier 0.233.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at WSH | WSH | 56% | 57% | -1 | -148 | WSH -1.5 | 5.5 | WSH -148 |
| SEA at DET | DET | 56% | 56% | 0 | -142 | DET -1.5 | 6.5 | DET -142 |
| ANA at WPG | WPG | 52% | 53% | -1 | -125 | WPG -1.5 | 6.5 | WPG -125 |
| PIT at CBJ | CBJ | 52% | 52% | 0 | -118 | CBJ -1.5 | 6.5 | CBJ -118 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals: WSH 56%
The model has WSH at 56% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: streak (+8.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.0 points), expected goals (+0.9 points). The case against is power play (-3.4 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 5.5.
| NYR | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Tom Wilson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tom Wilson | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jakob Chychrun | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings: DET 56%
The model has DET at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), head to head (+3.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.7 points). The case against is streak (-5.8 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 6.5.
| SEA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.0 | -0.3 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jared McCann | assists | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Viktor Arvidsson | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Viktor Arvidsson | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Bobby McMann | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets: WPG 52%
The model has WPG at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), venue (+3.4 points), shot margin (+2.9 points). The case against is streak (-9.7 points). The line is WPG -1.5, total 6.5.
| ANA | WPG | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.3 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Last five | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. WPG starter: Clay Stevenson (likely). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Salomonsson, Walker Duehr.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | shots on goal | 4.8 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Cutter Gauthier | shots on goal | 4.5 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cole Perfetti | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Beckett Sennecke | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 52%
The model has CBJ at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), rest (+3.4 points), schedule load (+2.2 points). The case against is streak (-3.1 points). The line is CBJ -1.5, total 6.5.
| PIT | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | +0.0 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 6 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Bryan Rust | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Bryan Rust | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matthew Knies | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evgeni Malkin | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tommy Novak | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | WPG | 0.83 | 56% | -129 | -115 |
| Alex Tuch | WSH | 0.81 | 56% | -125 | -112 |
| Dylan Larkin | DET | 0.74 | 52% | -110 | +101 |
| Cutter Gauthier | ANA | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Bryan Rust | PIT | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | DET | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Mackie Samoskevich | SEA | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
| Alex DeBrincat | DET | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | NYR | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Cole Perfetti | WPG | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Beckett Sennecke | ANA | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Tommy Novak | PIT | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
Yesterday's board
10 games, the model went 7-3.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at CAR | CAR | 68% | 63% | 74% | CAR 7-2 | Hit | CAR -340 (hit) |
| COL at CGY | COL | 64% | 59% | 68% | COL 7-3 | Hit | COL -238 (hit) |
| CHI at NYI | NYI | 63% | 64% | 62% | NYI 4-1 | Hit | NYI -185 (hit) |
| PHI at OTT | OTT | 61% | 59% | 62% | OTT 2-1 | Hit | OTT -180 (hit) |
| TOR at VGK | VGK | 60% | 61% | 60% | VGK 4-3 | Hit | VGK -170 (hit) |
| NSH at MTL | MTL | 59% | 54% | 62% | NSH 5-2 | Miss | - |
| MIN at TBL | TBL | 57% | 58% | 56% | TBL 3-2 | Hit | - |
| SJS at STL | STL | 57% | 57% | 56% | SJS 3-2 | Miss | - |
| UTA at BOS | UTA | 53% | 53% | 53% | BOS 6-1 | Miss | - |
| DAL at BUF | DAL | 51% | 47% | 53% | DAL 4-0 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: DAL at BUF: the model took BUF (53%), the market DAL; the served pick was DAL and the pick hit. CAR over VAN: model 63%, market 74%, an 11-point gap; the pick hit. COL over CGY: model 59%, market 68%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. MTL over NSH: model 54%, market 62%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: CAR 68% over VAN (hit), COL 64% over CGY (hit), NYI 63% over CHI (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 5-0 on its 5 legs here.
Season to date through October 8: 39-26 (60.0%), Brier 0.232; picks at 60% or better are 10-2.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 39 of 65 (60.0%), Brier score 0.233. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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