NHL2026-10-14NHL Picks for October 14: COL 57% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-14. The firmest call is COL at 57% over DAL; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 63-42 (60.0%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at COL | COL | 57% | 55% | +1 | -135 | COL -1.5 | 5.5 | COL -135 |
| MTL at WSH | WSH | 53% | 53% | 0 | -125 | WSH -1.5 | 6.5 | WSH -125 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche: COL 57%
The model has COL at 57% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+6.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), venue (+4.9 points). The case against is power play (-4.7 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 5.5.
| DAL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3-1 | 4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | +1.7 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
DAL starter: Casey DeSmith. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Luke Krys. COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (likely). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jason Robertson | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Scott Wedgewood | saves | 21.8 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Scott Wedgewood | goals against | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikko Rantanen | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals: WSH 53%
The model has WSH at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+1.9 points), goal margin (+1.5 points), head to head (+1.4 points). The case against is power play (-2.8 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.
| MTL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2-1 | 3-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.5 | +0.2 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Oliver Kapanen, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren (projected). WSH out: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Boone Jenner | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Boone Jenner | blocked shots | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas | COL | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.57 | 43% | +130 | +143 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.57 | 43% | +130 | +143 |
| Nick Suzuki | MTL | 0.44 | 36% | +181 | +196 |
| Jaden Schwartz | COL | 0.44 | 36% | +181 | +196 |
| Jason Robertson | DAL | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Boone Jenner | WSH | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Tom Wilson | WSH | 0.39 | 32% | +210 | +226 |
| Roope Hintz | DAL | 0.34 | 29% | +247 | +265 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 0.34 | 29% | +247 | +265 |
| Tyler Seguin | DAL | 0.32 | 27% | +265 | +284 |
| Mikko Rantanen | DAL | 0.31 | 27% | +275 | +294 |
Yesterday's board
16 games, the model went 9-7.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYI | NYI | 64% | 61% | 66% | NYI 3-2 | Hit | NYI -205 (hit) |
| PIT at CHI | PIT | 61% | 65% | 59% | CHI 5-3 | Miss | PIT -162 (miss) |
| CGY at ANA | ANA | 60% | 59% | 61% | CGY 4-2 | Miss | ANA -175 (miss) |
| TOR at UTA | UTA | 60% | 61% | 59% | UTA 5-4 | Hit | UTA -162 (hit) |
| WSH at CAR | CAR | 59% | 61% | 58% | CAR 4-2 | Hit | CAR -155 (hit) |
| TBL at NYR | TBL | 59% | 59% | 59% | NYR 4-1 | Miss | TBL -162 (miss) |
| BUF at MTL | MTL | 57% | 55% | 58% | MTL 4-3 | Hit | - |
| FLA at CBJ | CBJ | 56% | 60% | 54% | FLA 7-3 | Miss | - |
| EDM at LAK | EDM | 54% | 54% | 54% | EDM 4-1 | Hit | - |
| VGK at NSH | VGK | 53% | 52% | 53% | VGK 5-2 | Hit | - |
| BOS at SJS | BOS | 53% | 54% | 52% | BOS 6-3 | Hit | - |
| COL at DAL | COL | 53% | 56% | 51% | COL 3-2 | Hit | - |
| MIN at WPG | WPG | 52% | 56% | 51% | WPG 5-2 | Hit | - |
| NJD at DET | DET | 52% | 53% | 51% | NJD 5-4 | Miss | - |
| SEA at PHI | PHI | 51% | 47% | 53% | SEA 3-2 | Miss | - |
| STL at OTT | OTT | 50.1% | 48% | 51% | STL 7-2 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: SEA at PHI: the model took SEA (53%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick missed. STL at OTT: the model took STL (52%), the market OTT; the served pick was OTT and the pick missed. PIT over CHI: model 65%, market 59%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. CBJ over FLA: model 60%, market 54%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed. COL over DAL: model 56%, market 51%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: NYI 64% over VAN (hit), PIT 61% over CHI (miss), ANA 60% over CGY (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-3 on its 6 legs here.
Season to date through October 13: 63-42 (60.0%), Brier 0.234; picks at 60% or better are 16-7.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 63 of 105 (60.0%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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