NHL2026-10-12NHL Picks for October 12: NJD 54% Leads a 3-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
3 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-12. The firmest call is NJD at 54% over OTT; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 53-33 (61.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT at NJD | NJD | 54% | 55% | -1 | -135 | NJD -1.5 | 5.5 | NJD -135 |
| FLA at BUF | BUF | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | BUF -1.5 | 5.5 | BUF -115 |
| VGK at MIN | VGK | 51% | 49.6% | +2 | -108 | MIN -1.5 | 5.5 | VGK -108 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: NJD 54%
The model has NJD at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: schedule load (+2.4 points), high-danger chances (+1.8 points), injuries (ott without sanderson, eklund) (+1.6 points). The case against is goal margin (-3.2 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5.
| OTT | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.8 | -1.0 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Artem Zub, Cameron Crotty, Jake Sanderson, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund. NJD starter: Nico Daws (likely).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Drake Batherson | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Thomas Chabot | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Thomas Chabot | blocked shots | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jesper Bratt | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: BUF 51%
The model has BUF at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: head to head (+1.4 points), injuries (buf without zucker, timmins; fla without marchand, barkov) (+1.2 points), recent form (+0.6 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-3.6 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 5.5.
| FLA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1-2 | 2-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| Home / road | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 4.7 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | blocked shots | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jacob Markstrom | saves | 24.1 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Jacob Markstrom | goals against | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brady Tkachuk | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: VGK 51%
The model has VGK at 51% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.3 points), shot share (corsi) (+2.7 points), goal margin (+1.0 points). The case against is venue (-2.2 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 5.5.
| VGK | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 3-1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Home / road | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Nick Foligno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.97 | 62% | -164 | -144 |
| Tim Stützle | OTT | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Drake Batherson | OTT | 0.56 | 43% | +133 | +145 |
| Tage Thompson | BUF | 0.54 | 42% | +140 | +152 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | FLA | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Tomas Hertl | VGK | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Blake Coleman | MIN | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Jack Eichel | VGK | 0.37 | 31% | +224 | +241 |
| Nico Hischier | NJD | 0.37 | 31% | +224 | +241 |
| Matt Boldy | MIN | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
| Mitch Marner | VGK | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
Yesterday's board
3 games, the model went 2-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYR | NYR | 68% | 64% | 70% | NYR 6-2 | Hit | NYR -278 (hit) |
| SEA at WSH | WSH | 64% | 60% | 66% | SEA 5-3 | Miss | WSH -218 (miss) |
| CAR at PHI | CAR | 63% | 65% | 62% | CAR 4-1 | Hit | CAR -218 (hit) |
Where the model and the market split: NYR over VAN: model 64%, market 70%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. WSH over SEA: model 60%, market 66%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: NYR 68% over VAN (hit), WSH 64% over SEA (miss), CAR 63% over PHI (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-1 on its 3 legs here.
Season to date through October 11: 53-33 (61.6%), Brier 0.230; picks at 60% or better are 15-5.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 53 of 86 (61.6%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.