NHL Picks for October 8: CAR 68% Leads a 10-Game Board

10 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-08. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 2. Season to date the model is 32-23 (58.2%) on graded picks, Brier 0.237.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

CAR over VAN: we make it 68%, the market 74% (a 6-point gap).

COL over CGY: we make it 64%, the market 68% (a 3-point gap).

Game by game

Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 68%

The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 74%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.7 points), shot share (corsi) (+10.4 points), venue (+5.0 points). The case against is streak (-7.1 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis.

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames: COL 64%

The model has COL at 64% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.3 points), goal margin (+9.2 points), shot share (corsi) (+7.4 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (projected). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau.

Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders: NYI 63%

The model has NYI at 63% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.1 points), streak (+5.5 points), goal margin (+5.0 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.1 points). The line is NYI -1.5, total 5.5.

CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Mangiapane. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov.

Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators: OTT 61%

The model has OTT at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), shot share (corsi) (+5.6 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.2 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 5.5.

PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark. OTT out: Artem Zub, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 60%

The model has VGK at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.1 points), shot share (corsi) (+7.7 points), motivation (+4.8 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.

TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected).

Nashville Predators at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 59%

The model has MTL at 59% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: streak (+5.7 points), head to head (+3.8 points), shot margin (+1.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.7 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). NSH out: Justus Annunen. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Kaiden Guhle, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 57%

The model has TBL at 57% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.9 points), venue (+4.9 points), shot share (corsi) (+4.6 points). The case against is streak (-3.1 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber. TBL starter: Dennis Hildeby (likely).

San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues: STL 57%

The model has STL at 57% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), motivation (+4.5 points), streak (+3.1 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.3 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.

SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). STL starter: Joel Hofer (likely). STL out: Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko.

Utah Mammoth at Boston Bruins: UTA 53%

The model has UTA at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.5 points), goal margin (+5.8 points), motivation (+5.0 points). The case against is streak (-8.1 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 5.5.

UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.

Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres: DAL 51%

The model has DAL at 51% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: motivation (+4.6 points), power play (+4.2 points), home/road split (+3.3 points). The case against is recent form (-1.8 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.

DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys, Joel Kiviranta. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

3 games, the model went 2-1.

Where the model and the market split: EDM at ANA: the model took ANA (53%), the market EDM; the served pick was EDM and the pick hit. COL over WPG: model 57%, market 63%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: COL 61% over WPG (miss), WSH 58% over PIT (hit), EDM 52% over ANA (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-1 on its 3 legs here.

Season to date through October 7: 32-23 (58.2%), Brier 0.237; picks at 60% or better are 5-2.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 32 of 55 (58.2%), Brier score 0.237. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

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