NHL Picks for November 14: CAR 68% Leads a 14-Game Board

14 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-14. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over SEA; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 187-124 (60.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

CAR over SEA: we make it 68%, the market 77% (a 9-point gap).

Game by game

Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 68%

The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 77%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.0 points), goal margin (+6.7 points), expected goals (+6.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 9-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: CAR is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

SEA starter: Joey Daccord (likely). SEA out: Curtis Douglas, Jake O'Brien, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). Crew: Jake Brenk has been tough on SEA (1-7-1 in 9 games with this referee, a win rate 23 points below its norm under others).

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 66%

The model has TBL at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: goal margin (+5.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.0 points), venue (+3.3 points). The case against is recent form (-1.8 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (likely). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely).

San Jose Sharks at Utah Mammoth: UTA 64%

The model has UTA at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.8 points), expected goals (+5.0 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is rest (-2.0 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Logan Cooley, John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Nate Schmidt, Dylan Guenther.

Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings: LAK 60%

The model has LAK at 60% against a market price of 61%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points), expected goals (+3.3 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 17 and 19 games in) (+2.5 points). The case against is rest (-2.1 points). The line is LAK -1.5, total 5.5.

CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Connor Zary, Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau. LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (projected).

Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks: WPG 59%

The model has WPG at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.8 points), goal margin (+6.1 points), venue (+4.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 20 games in) (-2.4 points). The line is WPG -1.5, total 6.5.

WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Dylan DeMelo, Elias Salomonsson, Isak Rosen. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram.

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs: EDM 57%

The model has EDM at 57% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.3 points), expected goals (+2.8 points). The case against is recent form (-2.0 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.

EDM starter: Devon Levi (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Colton Sissons, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko.

Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars: DAL 56%

The model has DAL at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.7 points), venue (+2.8 points), penalty kill (+1.7 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-0.8 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.

BUF starter: Alex Lyon (projected). BUF out: Konsta Helenius, Matt Grzelcyk, Justin Danforth. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Lian Bichsel, Miro Heiskanen.

Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets: CBJ 55%

The model has CBJ at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: head to head (+3.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.6 points), goal margin (+1.9 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line is CBJ -1.5, total 5.5.

PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Nikita Grebenkin. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves.

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins: OTT 54%

The model has OTT at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: goal margin (+2.4 points), expected goals (+1.7 points), shot margin (+1.1 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 6.5.

OTT starter: Linus Ullmark. OTT out: Nick Cousins, Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov. PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom. Crew: Garrett Rank has been tough on PIT (+0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 3-6-2 in 11 games).

New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals: NJD 52%

The model has NJD at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: expected goals (+4.9 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.7 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.6 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5.

NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck. WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren. WSH out: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais. Crew: Trevor Hanson has been tough on NJD (+1.0 penalties a game versus its norm, 5-2-0 in 7 games).

Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 52%

The model has MTL at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: shot margin (+1.4 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 20 games in) (+1.0 points), high-danger chances (+0.7 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-6.5 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Chris Kreider, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. Crew: Kelly Sutherland has been tough on COL (6-6-2 in 14 games with this referee, a win rate 16 points below its norm under others). Crew: Kelly Sutherland has been tough on MTL (4-8-2 in 14 games with this referee, a win rate 20 points below its norm under others).

Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins: MIN 52%

The model has MIN at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: expected goals (+3.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+1.7 points), shot share (Corsi) (+1.3 points). The case against is venue (-3.3 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5.

MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman. BOS out: James Hagens. Crew: Chris Rooney has been friendly to BOS (-1.1 penalties a game versus its norm, 6-4-1 in 11 games). Crew: Chris Rooney has been tough on MIN (3-7-2 in 12 games with this referee, a win rate 24 points below its norm under others).

New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks: ANA 51%

The model has ANA at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: rest (+2.2 points), power play (+1.7 points), expected goals (+1.7 points). The case against is venue (-3.9 points). The line is ANA -1.5, total 6.5.

NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov. ANA starter: Ville Husso (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer.

Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues: FLA 51%

The model has FLA at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+2.6 points), expected goals (+2.3 points), goal margin (+1.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.3 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 5.5.

FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom (projected). FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. STL starter: Jordan Binnington (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Tyler Tucker. Crew: Justin Kea has been friendly to FLA (-0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 7-1-1 in 9 games).

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

2 games, the model went 1-1. The market favourite went 1-1.

The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.

The firmest calls: NYR 66% over VAN (hit), VGK 60% over NSH (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-1 on its 2 legs here.

Season to date through November 13: 187-124 (60.1%), Brier 0.230; market favourites 190-121 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 68-25.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 187 of 311 (60.1%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

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