NHL2026-11-09NHL Picks for November 9: EDM 59% Leads a 3-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
3 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-09. The firmest call is EDM at 59% over NYR; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 170-112 (60.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.229.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at EDM | EDM | 59% | 59% | 0 | -162 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 | EDM -162 |
| NYI at SJS | NYI | 56% | 56% | 0 | -142 | NYI -1.5 | 6.5 | NYI -142 |
| PHI at VAN | PHI | 55% | 55% | 0 | -135 | PHI -1.5 | 6.5 | PHI -135 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 59%
The model has EDM at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: goal margin (+4.0 points), venue (+2.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.0 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.6 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYR | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-7-1 | 12-3-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.2 | +1.1 |
| Home / road | 2-5 | 5-3 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. EDM starter: Devon Levi (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks: NYI 56%
The model has NYI at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.4 points), goal margin (+4.3 points), venue (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 16 games in) (-4.8 points). The line is NYI -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYI | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-6-3 | 7-11-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Home / road | 3-3 | 3-5 |
| Streak | O1 | L5 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Pulock, Matias Maccelli. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Bo Horvat | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Victor Eklund | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jacob Trouba | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jacob Trouba | blocked shots | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks: PHI 55%
The model has PHI at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.3 points), venue (+3.5 points), expected goals (+2.3 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The line is PHI -1.5, total 6.5.
| PHI | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-10-5 | 3-15-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.2 | -1.7 |
| Home / road | 1-6 | 1-7 |
| Streak | O1 | L5 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
PHI starter: Joseph Woll (likely). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Travis Konecny | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Elias Pettersson | blocked shots | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jamie Drysdale | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Liam Ohgren | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 0.70 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | NYR | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Brock Boeser | VAN | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Evan Bouchard | EDM | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | EDM | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Matthew Schaefer | NYI | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Liam Ohgren | VAN | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.44 | 36% | +181 | +196 |
| Tye Kartye | NYR | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 0.42 | 34% | +192 | +207 |
| Bo Horvat | NYI | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Victor Eklund | NYI | 0.39 | 32% | +210 | +226 |
Yesterday's board
6 games, the model went 4-2. The market favourite went 4-2.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD at TOR | NJD | 58% | 56% | 58% | NJD 4-0 | Hit | NJD -162 (hit) |
| TBL at WPG | TBL | 57% | 56% | 57% | WPG 4-3 | Miss | TBL -162 (miss) |
| FLA at BOS | BOS | 55% | 55% | 55% | BOS 4-1 | Hit | BOS -148 (hit) |
| PIT at ANA | ANA | 53% | 56% | 52% | ANA 5-2 | Hit | ANA -120 (hit) |
| VGK at BUF | VGK | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.4% | VGK 4-1 | Hit | - |
| PHI at CGY | PHI | 50.0% | 48% | 50.4% | CGY 4-3 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: PHI at CGY: the model took CGY (52%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick missed.
The firmest calls: NJD 58% over TOR (hit), TBL 57% over WPG (miss), BOS 55% over FLA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through November 8: 170-112 (60.3%), Brier 0.229; market favourites 173-109 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 63-24.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 170 of 282 (60.3%), Brier score 0.229. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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