NHL2026-11-04NHL Picks for November 4: FLA 68% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-04. The firmest call is FLA at 68% over CHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 145-101 (58.9%) on graded picks, Brier 0.232.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at FLA | FLA | 68% | 69% | -1 | -258 | FLA -1.5 | 5.5 | FLA -258 |
| SJS at LAK | LAK | 58% | 58% | 0 | -155 | LAK -1.5 | 6.5 | LAK -155 |
| CGY at SEA | SEA | 55% | 55% | 0 | -135 | SEA -1.5 | 6.5 | SEA -135 |
| OTT at BUF | BUF | 55% | 54% | 0 | -130 | BUF -1.5 | 6.5 | BUF -130 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers: FLA 68%
The model has FLA at 68% against a market price of 69%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.8 points), goal margin (+5.9 points), expected goals (+4.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.3 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 5.5.
| CHI | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-10-1 | 8-5-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.7 | +0.2 |
| Home / road | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brady Tkachuk | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sam Reinhart | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings: LAK 58%
The model has LAK at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.7 points), expected goals (+3.8 points), rest (+3.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 16 games in) (-2.4 points). The line is LAK -1.5, total 6.5.
| SJS | LAK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-8-1 | 4-7-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Home / road | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Will Smith | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jacob Trouba | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jacob Trouba | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Kiefer Sherwood | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken: SEA 55%
The model has SEA at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: goal margin (+4.0 points), rest (+3.2 points), schedule load (+2.1 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.7 points). The line is SEA -1.5, total 6.5.
| CGY | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-8 | 8-5-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.0 | +0.0 |
| Home / road | 2-5 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Joel Farabee | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matvei Gridin | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mackie Samoskevich | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandon Montour | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandon Montour | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres: BUF 55%
The model has BUF at 55% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt) (+2.3 points), goalies (+1.9 points), head to head (+1.3 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.0 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 6.5.
| OTT | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-6-1 | 7-4-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.1 | -0.4 |
| Home / road | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
OTT starter: Samuel Ersson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Tyler Kleven, Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. BUF starter: Colten Ellis (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Konsta Helenius, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Drake Batherson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Cozens | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Zach Benson | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Benson | assists | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | BUF | 0.89 | 59% | -143 | -127 |
| Drake Batherson | OTT | 0.79 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Dylan Cozens | OTT | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Roman Kantserov | CHI | 0.54 | 42% | +140 | +152 |
| Sam Reinhart | FLA | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Will Smith | SJS | 0.52 | 40% | +147 | +160 |
| Jack Quinn | BUF | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Joel Farabee | CGY | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Anton Lundell | FLA | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Shane Pinto | OTT | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Philip Tomasino | OTT | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Matvei Gridin | CGY | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
Yesterday's board
11 games, the model went 6-5. The market favourite went 6-5.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at TBL | TBL | 68% | 65% | 70% | TBL 4-2 | Hit | TBL -278 (hit) |
| CAR at NSH | CAR | 64% | 63% | 64% | NSH 4-1 | Miss | CAR -198 (miss) |
| WPG at MTL | MTL | 63% | 62% | 63% | WPG 5-4 | Miss | MTL -166 (miss) |
| MIN at PHI | MIN | 60% | 55% | 61% | MIN 4-2 | Hit | MIN -185 (hit) |
| ANA at VAN | ANA | 59% | 61% | 58% | ANA 5-4 | Hit | ANA -155 (hit) |
| EDM at NJD | NJD | 57% | 53% | 58% | NJD 4-3 | Hit | NJD -162 (hit) |
| UTA at TOR | UTA | 54% | 55% | 54% | UTA 3-2 | Hit | - |
| COL at CBJ | COL | 53% | 54% | 53% | CBJ 7-2 | Miss | - |
| STL at NYR | NYR | 53% | 52% | 53% | NYR 3-1 | Hit | - |
| DAL at WSH | WSH | 51% | 51% | 50.4% | DAL 6-5 | Miss | - |
| VGK at PIT | PIT | 50.4% | 50.3% | 50.4% | VGK 3-2 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: NJD over EDM: model 53%, market 58%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over PHI: model 55%, market 61%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: TBL 68% over DET (hit), CAR 64% over NSH (miss), MTL 63% over WPG (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-2 on its 6 legs here.
Season to date through November 3: 145-101 (58.9%), Brier 0.232; market favourites 148-98 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 52-22.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 145 of 246 (58.9%), Brier score 0.232. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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