NHL2026-11-02NHL Picks for November 2: COL 67% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-02. The firmest call is COL at 67% over CHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 138-93 (59.7%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at CHI | COL | 67% | 68% | -1 | -238 | COL -1.5 | 6.5 | COL -238 |
| DET at FLA | FLA | 61% | 61% | 0 | -175 | FLA -1.5 | 5.5 | FLA -175 |
| CGY at SJS | SJS | 53% | 53% | 0 | -125 | SJS -1.5 | 6.5 | SJS -125 |
| VGK at BOS | VGK | 52% | 52% | 0 | -118 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | VGK -118 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks: COL 67%
The model has COL at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+12.3 points), goal margin (+7.3 points), expected goals (+5.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.
| COL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-5-1 | 4-9-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.1 | -1.6 |
| Home / road | 2-4 | 4-4 |
| Streak | W2 | O1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Artturi Lehkonen | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Martin Necas | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Connor Bedard | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers: FLA 61%
The model has FLA at 61% against a market price of 61%. What drives it: venue (+2.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 14 and 14 games in) (+2.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.2 points). The case against is motivation (-0.8 points). The line is FLA -1.5, total 5.5.
| DET | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-5-3 | 8-4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brady Tkachuk | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Lucas Raymond | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks: SJS 53%
The model has SJS at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (+5.5 points), goal margin (+1.5 points), schedule load (+1.0 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-5.5 points). The line is SJS -1.5, total 6.5.
| CGY | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-8 | 7-7-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.1 | -0.7 |
| Home / road | 1-5 | 3-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matvei Gridin | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Will Smith | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins: VGK 52%
The model has VGK at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.4 points), expected goals (+3.4 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is venue (-3.3 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.
| VGK | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5-1 | 10-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.6 | +1.3 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 6-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mitch Marner | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mitch Marner | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | saves | 25.7 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | goals against | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 0.96 | 62% | -161 | -142 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | DET | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.65 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Joel Farabee | CGY | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Lucas Raymond | DET | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Matvei Gridin | CGY | 0.58 | 44% | +127 | +139 |
| Will Smith | SJS | 0.52 | 40% | +147 | +160 |
| Connor Bedard | CHI | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Brady Tkachuk | FLA | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Casey Mittelstadt | BOS | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Anton Lundell | FLA | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
Yesterday's board
5 games, the model went 1-4. The market favourite went 2-3.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG at CAR | CAR | 68% | 66% | 70% | CAR 7-0 | Hit | CAR -278 (hit) |
| UTA at PHI | UTA | 59% | 57% | 59% | PHI 6-3 | Miss | UTA -185 (miss) |
| EDM at NYR | NYR | 53% | 51% | 53% | EDM 4-1 | Miss | NYR -125 (miss) |
| OTT at ANA | OTT | 51% | 47% | 52% | ANA 6-3 | Miss | OTT -118 (miss) |
| MIN at WSH | WSH | 50.2% | 53% | 49.6% | MIN 5-1 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: OTT at ANA: the model took ANA (53%), the market OTT; the served pick was OTT and the pick missed. MIN at WSH: the model took WSH (53%), the market MIN; the served pick was WSH and the pick missed.
The firmest calls: CAR 68% over WPG (hit), UTA 59% over PHI (miss), NYR 53% over EDM (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-3 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through November 1: 138-93 (59.7%), Brier 0.231; market favourites 141-90 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 49-19.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 138 of 231 (59.7%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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