NHL2026-10-29NHL Picks for October 29: CAR 68% Leads a 11-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
11 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-29. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over CBJ; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 119-83 (58.9%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ at CAR | CAR | 68% | 69% | -1 | -258 | CAR -1.5 | 5.5 | CAR -250 |
| WPG at TBL | TBL | 67% | 68% | -1 | -238 | TBL -1.5 | 6.5 | TBL -245 |
| NYI at MIN | MIN | 62% | 63% | -1 | -192 | MIN -1.5 | 5.5 | MIN -192 |
| VAN at SJS | SJS | 62% | 62% | 0 | -185 | SJS -1.5 | 6.5 | SJS -192 |
| MTL at DAL | DAL | 59% | 60% | -1 | -166 | DAL -1.5 | 6.5 | DAL -162 |
| CHI at DET | DET | 59% | 58% | +1 | -155 | DET -1.5 | 5.5 | DET -180 |
| BUF at ANA | BUF | 55% | 56% | -1 | -142 | BUF -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| UTA at PIT | UTA | 54% | 54% | 0 | -130 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| OTT at LAK | OTT | 51% | 52% | 0 | -118 | OTT -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| BOS at STL | STL | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | STL -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| WSH at NSH | WSH | 51% | 50.4% | 0 | -112 | NSH -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 68%
The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 69%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.4 points), expected goals (+7.3 points), goal margin (+5.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 5.5.
| CBJ | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 | 10-2-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.7 | +1.4 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected). CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | blocked shots | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fantilli | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 67%
The model has TBL at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.2 points), expected goals (+3.9 points), goal margin (+3.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.6 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.
| WPG | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5-3 | 7-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.7 | +0.4 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | O1 |
| Last five | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (likely). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jake Guentzel | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | blocked shots | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brayden Point | shots on goal | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild: MIN 62%
The model has MIN at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: expected goals (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.6 points), goal margin (+2.3 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.4 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 5.5.
| NYI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4-2 | 9-3-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | +0.9 |
| Home / road | 2-3 | 4-0 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matthew Schaefer | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks: SJS 62%
The model has SJS at 62% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 14 games in) (+2.8 points). The case against is venue (-3.9 points). The line is SJS -1.5, total 6.5.
| VAN | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-10-1 | 6-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| Home / road | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brock Boeser | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Elias Pettersson | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jacob Trouba | blocked shots | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Montréal Canadiens at Dallas Stars: DAL 59%
The model has DAL at 59% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.0 points), venue (+2.8 points), expected goals (+2.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-0.9 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5.
| MTL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3-2 | 7-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Home / road | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (likely). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell, Kyle Capobianco.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mikko Rantanen | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Roope Hintz | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Wyatt Johnston | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings: DET 59%
The model has DET at 59% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.5 points), expected goals (+4.3 points), goal margin (+4.0 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 5.5.
| CHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-8 | 5-4-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| Home / road | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Lucas Raymond | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor Bedard | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Viktor Arvidsson | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | blocked shots | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks: BUF 55%
The model has BUF at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.3 points), venue (+4.0 points), expected goals (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (-3.1 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 6.5.
| BUF | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4-3 | 5-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | O1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
BUF starter: Colten Ellis (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Jiri Kulich, Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone. ANA starter: Ville Husso (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | blocked shots | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Zach Benson | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins: UTA 54%
The model has UTA at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: expected goals (+4.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.1 points), shot share (corsi) (+2.2 points). The case against is rest (-3.2 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| UTA | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-5 | 5-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | +0.0 |
| Home / road | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 2 wins |
UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs. PIT out: Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Rickard Rakell | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Erik Karlsson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Erik Karlsson | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings: OTT 51%
The model has OTT at 51% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.1 points), expected goals (+2.9 points), penalty kill (+1.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 13 games in) (-3.4 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 5.5.
| OTT | LAK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-5 | 3-6-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.1 | -0.8 |
| Home / road | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
OTT starter: Jonas Johansson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Thomas Chabot, William Eklund. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Drake Batherson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adrian Kempe | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | blocked shots | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | blocked shots | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues: STL 51%
The model has STL at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+1.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+1.8 points), recent form (+1.1 points). The case against is goal margin (-6.1 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.
| BOS | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3-1 | 5-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.6 | -0.2 |
| Home / road | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Ross Johnston.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | assists | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Dylan Holloway | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | blocked shots | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | saves | 20.7 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | goals against | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators: WSH 51%
The model has WSH at 51% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points), goal margin (+3.1 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (+2.2 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line is NSH -1.5, total 6.5.
| WSH | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4 | 4-3-5 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.5 | -0.4 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | O1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren (projected). WSH out: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Ryan O'Reilly | blocked shots | 1.2 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Alex Tuch | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Steven Stamkos | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jordan Kyrou | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Filip Forsberg | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch | WSH | 0.79 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.70 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| Artemi Panarin | LAK | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Drake Batherson | OTT | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Mikko Rantanen | DAL | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki | VAN | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Jake Guentzel | TBL | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | NSH | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Steven Stamkos | NSH | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Logan Stankoven | CAR | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
Yesterday's board
4 games, the model went 3-1. The market favourite went 3-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at WSH | WSH | 66% | 62% | 67% | WSH 5-2 | Hit | WSH -245 (hit) |
| CGY at EDM | EDM | 63% | 61% | 63% | EDM 4-0 | Hit | EDM -180 (hit) |
| NJD at COL | COL | 58% | 61% | 57% | COL 5-2 | Hit | COL -148 (hit) |
| TOR at SEA | TOR | 54% | 51% | 55% | SEA 5-4 | Miss | TOR -135 (miss) |
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls: WSH 66% over PHI (hit), EDM 63% over CGY (hit), COL 58% over NJD (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.
Season to date through October 28: 119-83 (58.9%), Brier 0.234; market favourites 121-81 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 39-17.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 119 of 202 (58.9%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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