NHL2026-10-24NHL Picks for October 24: NJD 62% Leads a 12-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
12 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-24. The firmest call is NJD at 62% over LAK; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 99-68 (59.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.233.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK at NJD | NJD | 62% | 63% | -1 | -192 | NJD -1.5 | 5.5 | NJD -192 |
| SJS at BOS | BOS | 62% | 63% | -1 | -192 | BOS -1.5 | 6.5 | BOS -192 |
| TOR at EDM | EDM | 61% | 62% | -1 | -180 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 | EDM -180 |
| CAR at STL | CAR | 58% | 58% | 0 | -155 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | CAR -155 |
| MIN at SEA | MIN | 58% | 58% | 0 | -155 | MIN -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| DET at CGY | DET | 56% | 57% | -1 | -148 | DET -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| NSH at PIT | PIT | 56% | 56% | -1 | -142 | PIT -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| VGK at CBJ | VGK | 56% | 56% | -1 | -142 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| TBL at UTA | UTA | 55% | 56% | -1 | -142 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| NYR at OTT | OTT | 54% | 53% | +1 | -125 | OTT -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| BUF at WSH | WSH | 52% | 53% | -1 | -125 | WSH -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| ANA at PHI | PHI | 52% | 53% | 0 | -122 | PHI -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils: NJD 62%
The model has NJD at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: expected goals (+8.6 points), goal margin (+4.0 points), time zone (+2.1 points). The case against is recent form (-3.0 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5.
| LAK | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4-2 | 6-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.1 | +0.2 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Streak | W2 | W2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected). NJD starter: Jake Allen (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | blocked shots | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Artemi Panarin | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Adrian Kempe | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins: BOS 62%
The model has BOS at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: goal margin (+7.0 points), expected goals (+5.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (-4.4 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 6.5.
| SJS | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4-1 | 8-2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.4 | +1.8 |
| Home / road | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | saves | 25.8 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Jeremy Swayman | goals against | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Charlie McAvoy | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Pavel Zacha | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 61%
The model has EDM at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.7 points), expected goals (+4.6 points), goal margin (+3.8 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.1 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.
| TOR | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | +1.5 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Marshall Rifai. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.9 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Kirill Marchenko | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues: CAR 58%
The model has CAR at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (+9.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), goal margin (+3.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| CAR | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| Home / road | 6-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | O1 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko, Ross Johnston.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Holloway | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mason McTavish | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Seth Jarvis | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken: MIN 58%
The model has MIN at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (+8.1 points), expected goals (5v5) (+7.2 points), venue (+3.1 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-4.3 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 6.5.
| MIN | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3-2 | 7-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Home / road | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno. SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brandon Montour | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandon Montour | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames: DET 56%
The model has DET at 56% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.0 points), expected goals (+4.8 points), head to head (+3.1 points). The case against is recent form (-2.7 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 5.5.
| DET | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-3 | 3-6 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.2 | -2.1 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 6 wins | 0 wins |
DET starter: Michal Postava (projected). DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Emmitt Finnie | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Emmitt Finnie | blocked shots | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Lucas Raymond | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Aydar Suniev | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Aydar Suniev | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Matt Coronato | shots on goal | 2.8 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins: PIT 56%
The model has PIT at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), high-danger chances (+2.6 points), goal margin (+2.3 points). The case against is injuries (pit without malkin, rust, kindel; chinakhov, girard gtd) (-3.2 points). The line is PIT -1.5, total 6.5.
| NSH | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3-3 | 4-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (likely). PIT out: Ben Kindel, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard, Trevor van Riemsdyk.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | blocked shots | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Erik Karlsson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Erik Karlsson | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Ryan O'Reilly | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Ryan O'Reilly | blocked shots | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Filip Forsberg | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sidney Crosby | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets: VGK 56%
The model has VGK at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (+9.0 points), goal margin (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.1 points). The case against is recent form (-4.1 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.
| VGK | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-4 | 3-5 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.8 | -1.1 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Zach Werenski | blocked shots | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fantilli | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Adam Fantilli | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Ivan Barbashev | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth: UTA 55%
The model has UTA at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.5 points), power play (+2.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 10 games in) (-4.3 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| TBL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 7-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 1 win |
TBL starter: Dennis Hildeby (projected). UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jake Guentzel | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators: OTT 54%
The model has OTT at 54% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.8 points), high-danger chances (+2.9 points), head to head (+1.1 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.4 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYR | OTT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4-1 | 7-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| Home / road | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. OTT starter: Jonas Johansson. OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Thomas Chabot, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox | assists | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | blocked shots | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | blocked shots | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tim Stützle | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Garand | saves | 19.8 | 18.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Dylan Garand | goals against | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals: WSH 52%
The model has WSH at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.6 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 10 games in) (+2.9 points), high-danger chances (+1.5 points). The case against is goalies (wsh: lindgren in for thompson, hurt) (-3.8 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.
| BUF | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4-2 | 5-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.9 | +0.1 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk. WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren. WSH out: Logan Thompson, Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Rasmus Dahlin | blocked shots | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tage Thompson | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Quinn | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jordan Kyrou | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers: PHI 52%
The model has PHI at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: head to head (+2.9 points), streak (+2.6 points), time zone (+2.3 points). The case against is expected goals (-3.9 points). The line is PHI -1.5, total 5.5.
| ANA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 | 3-6-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.6 | -1.4 |
| Home / road | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L5 | W3 |
| Last five | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Judd Caulfield, Troy Terry. PHI starter: Joseph Woll. PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Matvei Michkov | shots on goal | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Joseph Woll | saves | 28.7 | 26.5 or lower | 29.5 or higher |
| Joseph Woll | goals against | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cutter Gauthier | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leo Carlsson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 1.04 | 65% | -183 | -160 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.89 | 59% | -143 | -127 |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.79 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Kirill Marchenko | TOR | 0.78 | 54% | -118 | -106 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.76 | 53% | -114 | -102 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Alex DeBrincat | DET | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | NJD | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
| Mason McTavish | STL | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Matvei Michkov | PHI | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Jason Zucker | BUF | 0.61 | 46% | +119 | +130 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0.59 | 45% | +124 | +136 |
Yesterday's board
2 games, the model went 2-0. The market favourite went 2-0.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL at CHI | MTL | 60% | 57% | 60% | MTL 4-1 | Hit | MTL -170 (hit) |
| TBL at COL | COL | 54% | 55% | 53% | COL 6-3 | Hit | COL -122 (hit) |
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls: MTL 60% over CHI (hit), COL 54% over TBL (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-0 on its 2 legs here.
Season to date through October 23: 99-68 (59.3%), Brier 0.233; market favourites 101-66 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 31-13.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 99 of 167 (59.3%), Brier score 0.233. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
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