NHL2026-10-23NHL Picks for October 23: MTL 60% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-23. The firmest call is MTL at 60% over CHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 97-68 (58.8%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL at CHI | MTL | 60% | 60% | -1 | -170 | MTL -1.5 | 6.5 | MTL -170 |
| TBL at COL | COL | 54% | 53% | 0 | -125 | COL -1.5 | 6.5 | COL -125 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks: MTL 60%
The model has MTL at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), expected goals (+6.4 points), goal margin (+3.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.3 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.
| MTL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-2 | 3-6 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.4 | -1.7 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | O1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
MTL starter: Jacob Fowler (projected). MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Andrew Mangiapane.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Lane Hutson | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Connor Bedard | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Patrick Kane | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche: COL 54%
The model has COL at 54% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: venue (+4.0 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) (+3.7 points), recent form (+1.6 points). The case against is streak (-2.3 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.
| TBL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L2 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, Zachary L'Heureux.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Brandon Hagel | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikita Kucherov | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | shots on goal | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nathan MacKinnon | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Artturi Lehkonen | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Artturi Lehkonen | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cale Makar | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | TBL | 0.84 | 57% | -131 | -117 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.75 | 53% | -112 | -101 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 0.71 | 51% | -103 | +107 |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Martin Necas | COL | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
| Roman Kantserov | CHI | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Jake Guentzel | TBL | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Josh Anderson | MTL | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | COL | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Frank Nazar | CHI | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 0.34 | 29% | +247 | +265 |
| Teuvo Teravainen | CHI | 0.34 | 29% | +247 | +265 |
Yesterday's board
12 games, the model went 5-7.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA at NJD | NJD | 65% | 56% | 66% | NJD 4-1 | Hit | NJD -218 (hit) |
| WPG at DAL | DAL | 64% | 62% | 64% | DAL 3-2 | Hit | DAL -205 (hit) |
| MIN at CGY | MIN | 64% | 56% | 64% | CGY 2-1 | Miss | MIN -205 (miss) |
| DET at VAN | DET | 60% | 57% | 60% | DET 5-2 | Hit | DET -170 (hit) |
| UTA at SEA | UTA | 60% | 57% | 60% | SEA 5-3 | Miss | UTA -170 (miss) |
| NSH at BOS | BOS | 58% | 56% | 58% | BOS 6-0 | Hit | BOS -155 (hit) |
| SJS at OTT | OTT | 55% | 55% | 55% | SJS 6-2 | Miss | - |
| VGK at STL | VGK | 53% | 55% | 53% | STL 6-2 | Miss | - |
| CAR at EDM | CAR | 52% | 53% | 52% | EDM 6-5 | Miss | - |
| LAK at NYI | NYI | 51% | 51% | 51% | LAK 3-2 | Miss | - |
| FLA at PIT | PIT | 51% | 49% | 51% | PIT 4-0 | Hit | - |
| NYR at TOR | NYR | 50.3% | 47% | 50.4% | TOR 5-4 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: NYR at TOR: the model took TOR (53%), the market NYR; the served pick was NYR and the pick missed. FLA at PIT: the model took FLA (51%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick hit. NJD over ANA: model 56%, market 66%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over CGY: model 56%, market 64%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: NJD 65% over ANA (hit), DAL 64% over WPG (hit), MIN 64% over CGY (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-2 on its 6 legs here.
Season to date through October 22: 97-68 (58.8%), Brier 0.233; picks at 60% or better are 31-13.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 97 of 165 (58.8%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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