NHL2026-10-22NHL Picks for October 22: DAL 64% Leads a 12-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
12 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-22. The firmest call is DAL at 64% over WPG; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 92-61 (60.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.232.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG at DAL | DAL | 64% | 64% | -1 | -205 | DAL -1.5 | 5.5 | DAL -205 |
| ANA at NJD | NJD | 64% | 66% | -2 | -218 | NJD -1.5 | 6.5 | NJD -218 |
| MIN at CGY | MIN | 63% | 64% | -2 | -205 | MIN -1.5 | 5.5 | MIN -205 |
| DET at VAN | DET | 60% | 60% | -1 | -170 | DET -1.5 | 6.5 | DET -170 |
| UTA at SEA | UTA | 60% | 60% | -1 | -170 | UTA -1.5 | 6.5 | UTA -170 |
| NSH at BOS | BOS | 58% | 58% | -1 | -155 | BOS -1.5 | 5.5 | BOS -155 |
| SJS at OTT | OTT | 54% | 55% | -1 | -135 | OTT -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| VGK at STL | VGK | 54% | 53% | 0 | -125 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| CAR at EDM | CAR | 52% | 52% | 0 | -118 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| LAK at NYI | NYI | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | NYI -1.5 | 5.5 | - |
| FLA at PIT | PIT | 51% | 51% | -1 | -115 | PIT -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
| NYR at TOR | TOR | 50.3% | 49.6% | +1 | -108 | NYR -1.5 | 6.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars: DAL 64%
The model has DAL at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: expected goals (+5.3 points), goal margin (+3.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.1 points). The case against is power play (-1.4 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 5.5.
| WPG | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-2 | 5-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.2 | +0.9 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Luke Krys.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Kyle Connor | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mark Scheifele | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikko Rantanen | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Wyatt Johnston | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils: NJD 64%
The model has NJD at 64% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (+10.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.2 points), streak (+2.1 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.6 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5.
| ANA | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. NJD starter: Nico Daws.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jack Hughes | assists | 0.8 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Luke Evangelista | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Timo Meier | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Dougie Hamilton | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Dougie Hamilton | blocked shots | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames: MIN 63%
The model has MIN at 63% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: goal margin (+7.9 points), expected goals (+7.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points). The case against is recent form (-5.0 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 5.5.
| MIN | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2-2 | 2-6 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.6 | -2.5 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | O1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta, Marcus Foligno. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matt Boldy | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Quinn Hughes | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jesper Wallstedt | saves | 19.2 | 17.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Jesper Wallstedt | goals against | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks: DET 60%
The model has DET at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (+10.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+8.5 points), goal margin (+4.2 points). The case against is recent form (-5.3 points). The line is DET -1.5, total 6.5.
| DET | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3-3 | 2-8-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | O1 | L2 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | shots on goal | 4 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Moritz Seider | blocked shots | 2.9 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Emmitt Finnie | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Larkin | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Linus Karlsson | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken: UTA 60%
The model has UTA at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.0 points), expected goals (+10.2 points), venue (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-3.8 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
| UTA | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Schmaltz | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mikhail Sergachev | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jordan Eberle | blocked shots | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Dylan Guenther | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins: BOS 58%
The model has BOS at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: goal margin (+5.1 points), venue (+3.0 points), high-danger chances (+1.4 points). The case against is rest (-3.2 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 5.5.
| NSH | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.1 | +1.4 |
| Home / road | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W1 | O1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 5 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). BOS starter: Michael DiPietro.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Filip Forsberg | shots on goal | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Ryan O'Reilly | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Ryan O'Reilly | blocked shots | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Fraser Minten | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators: OTT 54%
The model has OTT at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.0 points), expected goals (+5.7 points), goal margin (+4.6 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 6.5.
| SJS | OTT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4-1 | 7-3 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -0.8 | +0.5 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). OTT starter: Samuel Ersson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Thomas Chabot, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | shots on goal | 4.1 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jake Sanderson | blocked shots | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Ivar Stenberg | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Will Smith | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues: VGK 54%
The model has VGK at 54% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (+6.6 points), goal margin (+4.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.2 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.
| VGK | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 4-4-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.3 | +0.0 |
| Home / road | 3-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko, Ross Johnston.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Dylan Holloway | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Dylan Holloway | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mason McTavish | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers: CAR 52%
The model has CAR at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.4 points), expected goals (+8.3 points), time zone (+1.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 11 games in) (-4.5 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| CAR | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-2-1 | 7-1-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Home / road | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Mark Jankowski, Taylor Hall. EDM starter: Devon Levi (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 2.8 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.6 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders: NYI 51%
The model has NYI at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.3 points), shot margin (+2.4 points), time zone (+2.3 points). The case against is recent form (-4.6 points). The line is NYI -1.5, total 5.5.
| LAK | NYI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4-2 | 5-3-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | -1.4 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (projected). NYI starter: Semyon Varlamov. NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer | shots on goal | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Bo Horvat | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Brandt Clarke | blocked shots | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adrian Kempe | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Artemi Panarin | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins: PIT 51%
The model has PIT at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.5 points), recent form (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-5.9 points). The line is PIT -1.5, total 6.5.
| FLA | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3-2 | 3-6-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.1 | -0.5 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
FLA starter: Cooper Black (projected). FLA out: Jacob Markstrom, Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (likely). PIT out: Ben Kindel, Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | shots on goal | 4.3 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Matthew Tkachuk | assists | 1.7 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Sam Reinhart | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Seth Jones | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Carter Verhaeghe | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs: TOR 50.3%
The model has TOR at 50.3% against a market price of 49.6%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (+5.8 points), high-danger chances (+4.5 points), venue (+1.7 points). The case against is expected goals (-6.7 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYR | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3-1 | 5-4-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| Home / road | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Auston Matthews | blocked shots | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Kirill Marchenko | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Alexis Lafrenière | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jack Roslovic | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Roslovic | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | assists | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | FLA | 1.07 | 66% | -192 | -166 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.89 | 59% | -143 | -127 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 0.80 | 55% | -123 | -110 |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 0.78 | 54% | -118 | -106 |
| Sam Reinhart | FLA | 0.71 | 51% | -103 | +107 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0.69 | 49.8% | +101 | +111 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | FLA | 0.69 | 49.8% | +101 | +111 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | NJD | 0.67 | 49% | +105 | +116 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | STL | 0.67 | 49% | +105 | +116 |
| Alex DeBrincat | DET | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Matt Boldy | MIN | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
Yesterday's board
2 games, the model went 0-2.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at BUF | BUF | 62% | 61% | 62% | PHI 3-1 | Miss | BUF -205 (miss) |
| FLA at OTT | FLA | 50.4% | 51% | 50.4% | OTT 5-1 | Miss | FLA -110 (miss) |
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls: BUF 62% over PHI (miss), FLA 50.4% over OTT (miss).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 0-2 on its 2 legs here.
Season to date through October 21: 92-61 (60.1%), Brier 0.232; picks at 60% or better are 28-11.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 92 of 153 (60.1%), Brier score 0.232. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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