NHL Picks for October 31: COL 68% Leads a 10-Game Board

10 NHL games on the board for 2026-10-31. The firmest call is COL at 68% over CGY; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 128-88 (59.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.232.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

COL over CGY: we make it 68%, the market 78% (a 10-point gap).

Game by game

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche: COL 68%

The model has COL at 68% against a market price of 78%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.2 points), back to back (+6.4 points), goal margin (+5.7 points). The case against is power play (-1.3 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.

Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins: BOS 67%

The model has BOS at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.3 points), goal margin (+7.7 points), expected goals (+3.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.9 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 6.5.

CHI starter: Arvid Soderblom (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks: TOR 62%

The model has TOR at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.9 points), expected goals (+4.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5.

TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: John Tavares, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars: DAL 62%

The model has DAL at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.7 points), expected goals (+3.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points). The case against is head to head (-1.2 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 5.5.

CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected). DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators: TBL 60%

The model has TBL at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.7 points), expected goals (+4.3 points), goal margin (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 12 games in) (-3.1 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected).

Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks: OTT 54%

The model has OTT at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.0 points), venue (+4.2 points), expected goals (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 14 and 14 games in) (-4.9 points). The line is OTT -1.5, total 6.5.

OTT starter: Samuel Ersson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Hayden Hodgson, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).

Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings: BUF 54%

The model has BUF at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: head to head (+2.2 points), schedule load (+1.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+0.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 13 games in) (-2.5 points). The line is BUF -1.5, total 5.5.

BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Jiri Kulich, Konsta Helenius, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone. LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (projected).

Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 54%

The model has MTL at 54% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 13 games in) (+3.5 points), goalies (+2.2 points), goal margin (+1.8 points). The case against is venue (-3.4 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom, Justin Brazeau. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders: EDM 51%

The model has EDM at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: expected goals (+3.4 points), goal margin (+2.4 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is goalies (-2.9 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.

EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli.

St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings: STL 51%

The model has STL at 51% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: penalty kill (+1.7 points), shot margin (+1.4 points), venue (+1.1 points). The case against is expected goals (-2.3 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.

STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Colton Parayko, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Ross Johnston. DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

3 games, the model went 1-2. The market favourite went 1-2.

Where the model and the market split: SEA at CGY: the model took CGY (53%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. VGK over NJD: model 56%, market 51%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: FLA 66% over WPG (hit), VGK 52% over NJD (miss), SEA 50.3% over CGY (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-2 on its 3 legs here.

Season to date through October 30: 128-88 (59.3%), Brier 0.232; market favourites 130-86 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 44-18.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 128 of 216 (59.3%), Brier score 0.232. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.