NHL Picks for November 3: TBL 68% Leads a 11-Game Board

11 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-03. The firmest call is TBL at 68% over DET; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 139-96 (59.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.232.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning: TBL 68%

The model has TBL at 68% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: back to back (+6.5 points), rest (+5.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.4 points). The case against is power play (-1.0 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected).

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators: CAR 64%

The model has CAR at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.6 points), goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (+5.8 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.

CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin. NSH starter: Juuse Saros.

Winnipeg Jets at Montréal Canadiens: MTL 62%

The model has MTL at 62% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points), expected goals (+2.7 points). The case against is venue (-3.1 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 5.5.

WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.

Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers: MIN 61%

The model has MIN at 61% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: expected goals (+7.4 points), goal margin (+7.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.0 points). The line is MIN -1.5, total 5.5.

MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin.

Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks: ANA 59%

The model has ANA at 59% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.1 points), goal margin (+5.0 points), expected goals (+3.8 points). The case against is rest (-2.1 points). The line is ANA -1.5, total 6.5.

ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (likely). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.

Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils: NJD 57%

The model has NJD at 57% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+3.3 points), expected goals (+3.3 points), rest (+3.2 points). The case against is goal margin (-3.1 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 6.5.

EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula. NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck.

Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs: UTA 54%

The model has UTA at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.9 points), expected goals (+4.9 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 15 games in) (-4.1 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Sebastian Cossa (likely). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: John Tavares, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko.

Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets: COL 53%

The model has COL at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: goal margin (+6.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.6 points), expected goals (+5.8 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.

COL starter: Scott Wedgewood. COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot.

St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers: NYR 52%

The model has NYR at 52% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: schedule load (+2.1 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (+1.5 points), recent form (+1.4 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-2.3 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 5.5.

STL starter: Joel Hofer. STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Ross Johnston. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.

Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins: PIT 51%

The model has PIT at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: back to back (+7.4 points), rest (+6.5 points), penalty kill (+1.7 points). The case against is expected goals (-4.4 points). The line is PIT -1.5, total 6.5.

VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs. PIT out: Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom.

Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals: WSH 51%

The model has WSH at 51% against a market price of 50.4%. What drives it: goalies (+1.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 14 games in) (+1.5 points), motivation (+0.8 points). The case against is head to head (-2.2 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 5.5.

DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

4 games, the model went 1-3. The market favourite went 1-3.

The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.

The firmest calls: COL 67% over CHI (hit), FLA 61% over DET (miss), SJS 53% over CGY (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 1-3 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through November 2: 139-96 (59.1%), Brier 0.232; market favourites 142-93 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 50-20.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 139 of 235 (59.1%), Brier score 0.232. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

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