NHL Picks for November 7: CAR 68% Leads a 12-Game Board

12 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-07. The firmest call is CAR at 68% over CHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 3. Season to date the model is 156-108 (59.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.231.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

CAR over CHI: we make it 68%, the market 78% (a 10-point gap).

EDM over VAN: we make it 68%, the market 73% (a 5-point gap).

DAL over SJS: we make it 68%, the market 72% (a 4-point gap).

Game by game

Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 68%

The model has CAR at 68% against a market price of 78%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+14.4 points), goal margin (+8.3 points), expected goals (+7.3 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: CAR is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal.

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 68%

The model has EDM at 68% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.9 points), goal margin (+7.8 points), expected goals (+5.8 points). The case against is recent form (-2.6 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: EDM is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula.

San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars: DAL 68%

The model has DAL at 68% against a market price of 72%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.7 points), back to back (+6.5 points), rest (+5.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 18 games in) (-2.0 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: DAL is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (projected). DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys, Miro Heiskanen.

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche: COL 66%

The model has COL at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.7 points), venue (+3.7 points), goal margin (+3.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-0.9 points). The line is COL -1.5, total 6.5.

DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders: NJD 58%

The model has NJD at 58% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: expected goals (+6.1 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.2 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.3 points). The case against is head to head (-3.0 points). The line is NJD -1.5, total 5.5.

NJD starter: Jake Allen (likely). NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (likely). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Pulock, Matias Maccelli.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild: TBL 56%

The model has TBL at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 18 and 15 games in) (-3.3 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). MIN starter: Calvin Pickard. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno.

New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken: NYR 54%

The model has NYR at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.0 points), expected goals (+3.9 points), venue (+3.1 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.

NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Curtis Douglas, Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings: LAK 54%

The model has LAK at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: rest (+2.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 14 and 16 games in) (+1.4 points), schedule load (+1.1 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.7 points). The line is LAK -1.5, total 6.5.

PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs: MTL 53%

The model has MTL at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.0 points), head to head (+2.2 points), goalies (+2.1 points). The case against is rest (-3.3 points). The line is MTL -1.5, total 6.5.

MTL starter: Jacob Fowler (projected). MTL out: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood.

Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals: WSH 52%

The model has WSH at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: goalies (+2.7 points), rest (+1.3 points), motivation (+0.8 points). The case against is shot share (Corsi) (-3.4 points). The line is WSH -1.5, total 6.5.

FLA starter: Akira Schmid. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.

Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators: UTA 51%

The model has UTA at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.2 points), expected goals (+2.9 points), shot share (Corsi) (+2.2 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line is UTA -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Kailer Yamamoto. OTT starter: Samuel Ersson. OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Ridly Greig, Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele, William Eklund.

St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators: NSH 50.2%

The model has NSH at 50.2% against a market price of 50.0%. What drives it: head to head (+1.6 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 16 games in) (+1.6 points), power play (+1.2 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.7 points). The line is STL -1.5, total 5.5.

STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected).

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

3 games, the model went 2-1. The market favourite went 2-1.

Where the model and the market split: MIN over SJS: model 62%, market 69%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: MIN 68% over SJS (hit), BUF 60% over CBJ (hit), CGY 54% over ANA (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-1 on its 3 legs here.

Season to date through November 6: 156-108 (59.1%), Brier 0.231; market favourites 159-105 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 59-24.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 156 of 264 (59.1%), Brier score 0.231. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

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