NHL2026-11-13NHL Picks for November 13: NYR 66% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-13. The firmest call is NYR at 66% over VAN; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 186-123 (60.2%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at VAN | NYR | 66% | 66% | 0 | -225 | NYR -1.5 | 6.5 | NYR -225 |
| NSH at VGK | VGK | 60% | 59% | 0 | -162 | VGK -1.5 | 6.5 | VGK -162 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks: NYR 66%
The model has NYR at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.9 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), expected goals (+6.3 points). The case against is recent form (-3.1 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 6.5.
| NYR | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-8-1 | 3-16-1 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.1 | -1.7 |
| Home / road | 3-6 | 1-8 |
| Streak | W1 | L6 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad | blocked shots | 1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brock Boeser | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Tye Kartye | shots on goal | 2.1 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 60%
The model has VGK at 60% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.4 points), expected goals (+2.7 points), venue (+2.2 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.5 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.
| NSH | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-4-5 | 13-5-2 |
| Margin per game (goals) | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Home / road | 4-1 | 7-3 |
| Streak | W6 | W4 |
| Last five | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Noah Hanifin.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Roman Josi | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Steven Stamkos | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Tomas Hertl | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Victor Olofsson | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos | NSH | 0.64 | 47% | +111 | +123 |
| Tomas Hertl | VGK | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Trevor Connelly | VGK | 0.56 | 43% | +133 | +145 |
| Victor Olofsson | VGK | 0.54 | 42% | +140 | +152 |
| Brock Boeser | VAN | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Tye Kartye | NYR | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Ross Colton | NSH | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Filip Forsberg | NSH | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Gabe Perreault | NYR | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | NYR | 0.39 | 32% | +210 | +226 |
| Jack Eichel | VGK | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 0.37 | 31% | +224 | +241 |
Yesterday's board
11 games, the model went 5-6. The market favourite went 5-6.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at SEA | CAR | 68% | 66% | 72% | CAR 4-1 | Hit | CAR -305 (hit) |
| WPG at DAL | DAL | 61% | 62% | 61% | WPG 8-3 | Miss | DAL -175 (miss) |
| DET at FLA | FLA | 60% | 59% | 60% | FLA 5-4 | Hit | FLA -170 (hit) |
| MIN at TOR | MIN | 60% | 58% | 60% | MIN 5-2 | Hit | MIN -170 (hit) |
| BUF at CHI | BUF | 59% | 60% | 58% | CHI 3-2 | Miss | BUF -155 (miss) |
| WSH at NJD | NJD | 57% | 52% | 58% | NJD 5-2 | Hit | NJD -162 (hit) |
| NYI at LAK | LAK | 53% | 54% | 53% | NYI 5-2 | Miss | - |
| MTL at BOS | BOS | 53% | 53% | 53% | MTL 5-2 | Miss | - |
| COL at OTT | COL | 52% | 53% | 52% | OTT 4-3 | Miss | - |
| STL at UTA | UTA | 52% | 52% | 52% | STL 1-0 | Miss | - |
| TBL at CBJ | TBL | 51% | 49.8% | 51% | TBL 3-1 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: TBL at CBJ: the model took CBJ (50.2%), the market TBL; the served pick was TBL and the pick hit. NJD over WSH: model 52%, market 58%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. CAR over SEA: model 66%, market 72%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: CAR 68% over SEA (hit), DAL 61% over WPG (miss), FLA 60% over DET (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-2 on its 6 legs here.
Season to date through November 12: 186-123 (60.2%), Brier 0.230; market favourites 189-120 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 67-25.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 186 of 309 (60.2%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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