NHL Picks for November 11: EDM 64% Leads a 6-Game Board

6 NHL games on the board for 2026-11-11. The firmest call is EDM at 64% over PHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 176-116 (60.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.230.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 64%

The model has EDM at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: goal margin (+7.5 points), expected goals (+4.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points). The case against is goalies (-1.4 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5.

PHI starter: Dan Vladar (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard.

Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks: ANA 57%

The model has ANA at 57% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: back to back (+7.5 points), rest (+6.4 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is venue (-3.8 points). The line is ANA -1.5, total 6.5.

NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected). ANA starter: Laurent Brossoit (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. Crew: Jon McIsaac has been tough on ANA (2-6-0 in 8 games with this referee, a win rate 16 points below its norm under others).

New York Rangers at Calgary Flames: NYR 55%

The model has NYR at 55% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: expected goals (+4.4 points), goal margin (+4.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+1.2 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line is NYR -1.5, total 5.5.

NYR starter: Joonas Korpisalo (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (likely). CGY out: Connor Zary, Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.

Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks: PIT 55%

The model has PIT at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.7 points), venue (+4.1 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 20 and 18 games in) (-3.5 points). The line is PIT -1.5, total 6.5.

PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres: TBL 54%

The model has TBL at 54% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: goal margin (+4.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.8 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is head to head (-1.6 points). The line is TBL -1.5, total 6.5.

TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Konsta Helenius, Matt Grzelcyk, Justin Danforth. Crew: Frederick L'Ecuyer has been tough on BUF (+1.2 penalties a game versus its norm, 3-3-0 in 6 games).

Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 53%

The model has VGK at 53% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: goal margin (+3.1 points), venue (+2.2 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-2.3 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 6.5.

UTA starter: Sebastian Cossa (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Nate Schmidt, Kailer Yamamoto. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Noah Hanifin, Parker Wotherspoon.

Anytime goal list

Yesterday's board

7 games, the model went 4-3. The market favourite went 4-3.

The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.

The firmest calls: COL 59% over TOR (hit), NJD 57% over WPG (miss), STL 56% over DET (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 2-2 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through November 10: 176-116 (60.3%), Brier 0.230; market favourites 179-113 on the same games; picks at 60% or better are 63-24.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-29: 176 of 292 (60.3%), Brier score 0.230. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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