Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Hunter Henry Climbs, Jauan Jennings Slides (Week of September 15)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the September 8 and September 15 ADP snapshots, Hunter Henry climbed 20.0 picks to an ADP of 136.8 while Jauan Jennings slid 18.2 picks to 161.5. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Hunter Henry (TE, NE)**: ADP 156.8 to 136.8, up 20.0 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE12.
**Jalen Nailor (WR, LV)**: ADP 157.2 to 143.0, up 14.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR64, 4 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**George Kittle (TE, SF)**: ADP 90.0 to 77.1, up 12.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE5.
**Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, MIN)**: ADP 104.7 to 92.3, up 12.4 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB34, 2 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)**: ADP 101.7 to 90.0, up 11.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE8.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: ADP 156.6 to 145.9, up 10.7 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB88, 40 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: ADP 151.9 to 142.7, up 9.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB89, 43 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Malik Washington (WR, MIA)**: ADP 152.0 to 143.4, up 8.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR61.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Jauan Jennings (WR, MIN)**: ADP 143.3 to 161.5, down 18.2 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR78, 9 spots behind his market slot.
**Daniel Jones (QB, IND)**: ADP 158.8 to 171.0, down 12.2 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him QB29, 5 spots behind his market slot.
**Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)**: ADP 74.3 to 85.8, down 11.5 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him QB16, 8 spots behind his market slot.
**Keenan Allen (WR, IND)**: ADP 136.7 to 148.0, down 11.3 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR58 for us, 5 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)**: ADP 160.7 to 170.2, down 9.5 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR86, 16 spots behind his market slot.
**Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE)**: ADP 73.8 to 83.1, down 9.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE6.
**Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)**: ADP 92.6 to 101.1, down 8.5 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB31 for us, 5 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the NA tag on the injury report.
**Rachaad White (RB, WAS)**: ADP 129.6 to 137.8, down 8.2 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB36 for us, 8 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB12 at ADP 99.7; our blend ranks him QB4. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Rachaad White (RB, WAS)**: the market drafts him RB44 at ADP 137.8; our blend ranks him RB36. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**RJ Harvey (RB, DEN)**: the market drafts him RB34 at ADP 94.7; our blend ranks him RB27. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Bo Nix (QB, DEN)**: the market drafts him QB13 at ADP 104.6; our blend ranks him QB6. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)**: the market drafts him RB47 at ADP 145.2; our blend ranks him RB40. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Out designation.
**TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE)**: the market drafts him RB27 at ADP 64.6; our blend ranks him RB21. That is a 6 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Out designation.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB46 at ADP 142.7; our blend has him RB89, 43 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB48 at ADP 145.9; our blend has him RB88, 40 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Caleb Douglas (WR, MIA)**: drafters take him WR65 at ADP 156.1; our blend has him WR94, 29 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Denzel Boston (WR, CLE)**: drafters take him WR62 at ADP 146.5; our blend has him WR87, 25 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Kaelon Black (RB, SF)**: drafters take him RB51 at ADP 163.9; our blend has him RB74, 23 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: drafters take him RB50 at ADP 157.9; our blend has him RB68, 18 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Kaelon Black (RB, SF)**: climbed from RB86 to RB74 on our board this week.
**Caleb Douglas (WR, MIA)**: climbed from WR105 to WR94 on our board this week.
**Oronde Gadsden II (TE, LAC)**: climbed from TE26 to TE18 on our board this week.
**Jalen Nailor (WR, LV)**: climbed from WR71 to WR64 on our board this week.
**Hunter Henry (TE, NE)**: climbed from TE18 to TE12 on our board this week.
**Denzel Boston (WR, CLE)**: fell from WR66 to WR87 on our board this week.
**Jauan Jennings (WR, MIN)**: fell from WR60 to WR78 on our board this week.
**Kenyon Sadiq (TE, NYJ)**: fell from TE22 to TE40 on our board this week.
**Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)**: fell from WR70 to WR86 on our board this week.
**Dontayvion Wicks (WR, PHI)**: fell from WR69 to WR85 on our board this week.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.