Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: AJ Barner Climbs, Josh Jacobs Slides (Week of September 8)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the September 7 and September 8 ADP snapshots, AJ Barner climbed 9.7 picks to an ADP of 149.8 while Josh Jacobs slid 15.6 picks to 92.6. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**AJ Barner (TE, SEA)**: ADP 159.5 to 149.8, up 9.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE16.
**Jordyn Tyson (WR, NO)**: ADP 157.7 to 149.1, up 8.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR62. Note the IR tag on the injury report. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Jaylin Noel (WR, HOU)**: ADP 173.4 to 166.7, up 6.7 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits WR72 for us, 8 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)**: ADP 119.2 to 112.9, up 6.3 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB49, 10 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)**: ADP 106.7 to 101.7, up 5.0 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE8. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)**: ADP 70.4 to 66.1, up 4.3 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB31, 4 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Najee Harris (RB, NYG)**: ADP 145.5 to 141.6, up 3.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB45.
**Justice Hill (RB, BAL)**: ADP 163.8 to 160.0, up 3.8 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits RB51 for us, 5 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)**: ADP 77.0 to 92.6, down 15.6 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB27 for us, 7 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the NA tag on the injury report.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: ADP 152.9 to 165.6, down 12.7 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB72, 8 spots behind his market slot.
**Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)**: ADP 170.4 to 180.0, down 9.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE25.
**Xavier Legette (WR, CAR)**: ADP 180.6 to 190.1, down 9.5 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR96, 9 spots behind his market slot. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Rachaad White (RB, WAS)**: ADP 120.4 to 129.6, down 9.2 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB35 for us, 8 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: ADP 169.0 to 177.6, down 8.6 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB56 for us, 10 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**Darius Slayton (WR, FA)**: ADP 178.0 to 186.2, down 8.2 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR90, 4 spots behind his market slot.
**Kenyon Sadiq (TE, NYJ)**: ADP 163.0 to 169.6, down 6.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE22. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB61 at ADP 161.6; our blend ranks him RB48. That is a 13 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Brian Robinson (RB, ATL)**: the market drafts him RB62 at ADP 163.6; our blend ranks him RB52. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: the market drafts him WR78 at ADP 165.7; our blend ranks him WR68. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a IR designation.
**Troy Franklin (WR, DEN)**: the market drafts him WR85 at ADP 177.1; our blend ranks him WR75. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: the market drafts him RB66 at ADP 177.6; our blend ranks him RB56. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB12 at ADP 102.7; our blend ranks him QB3. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Nicholas Singleton (RB, TEN)**: drafters take him RB51 at ADP 156.4; our blend has him RB95, 44 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB49 at ADP 151.9; our blend has him RB92, 43 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Emmett Johnson (RB, KC)**: drafters take him RB47 at ADP 147.2; our blend has him RB89, 42 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Cyrus Allen (WR, KC)**: drafters take him WR67 at ADP 154.8; our blend has him WR109, 42 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB52 at ADP 156.6; our blend has him RB94, 42 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL)**: drafters take him WR73 at ADP 160.9; our blend has him WR104, 31 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Sean Clifford (QB, CIN)**: climbed from QB38 to QB32 on our board this week.
**Jordyn Tyson (WR, NO)**: climbed from WR67 to WR62 on our board this week. The IR designation is part of that math.
**Troy Franklin (WR, DEN)**: climbed from WR80 to WR75 on our board this week.
**Jaylin Noel (WR, HOU)**: climbed from WR76 to WR72 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Dontayvion Wicks (WR, PHI)**: climbed from WR72 to WR69 on our board this week.
**Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)**: fell from WR82 to WR103 on our board this week.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: fell from RB52 to RB72 on our board this week.
**Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ)**: fell from RB59 to RB65 on our board this week.
**Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)**: fell from RB24 to RB27 on our board this week. The NA designation is part of that math.
**Mike Evans (WR, SF)**: fell from WR30 to WR32 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.