Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: George Kittle Climbs, Keon Coleman Slides (Week of September 1)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the August 25 and September 1 ADP snapshots, George Kittle climbed 21.3 picks to an ADP of 95.4 while Keon Coleman slid 76.5 picks to 178.6. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**George Kittle (TE, SF)**: ADP 116.7 to 95.4, up 21.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE7. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Greg Dulcich (TE, MIA)**: ADP 183.0 to 163.8, up 19.2 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE23.
**MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)**: ADP 154.6 to 139.3, up 15.3 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB54, 9 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)**: ADP 185.0 to 173.3, up 11.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE27.
**Caleb Douglas (WR, MIA)**: ADP 172.8 to 161.8, up 11.0 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR105, 29 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Emmett Johnson (RB, KC)**: ADP 163.0 to 152.6, up 10.4 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB93, 41 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Geno Smith (QB, NYJ)**: ADP 180.2 to 170.7, up 9.5 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits QB24 for us, 6 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
**James Conner (RB, ARI)**: ADP 169.1 to 160.7, up 8.4 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits RB56 for us, 8 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position. Note the IR tag on the injury report.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)**: ADP 102.1 to 178.6, down 76.5 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR82 for us, 4 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Jordyn Tyson (WR, NO)**: ADP 139.8 to 157.1, down 17.3 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR69 for us, 2 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the IR tag on the injury report.
**Jordan James (RB, SF)**: ADP 139.0 to 156.2, down 17.2 picks on the week. He is outside the ranked universe of our board this week, so the market is catching up to a fade we already made.
**Jaylin Noel (WR, HOU)**: ADP 162.8 to 178.2, down 15.4 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR75 for us, 10 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Xavier Hutchinson (WR, HOU)**: ADP 172.5 to 186.4, down 13.9 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR106, 18 spots behind his market slot.
**Ryan Flournoy (WR, DAL)**: ADP 159.7 to 172.8, down 13.1 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR80 for us, 3 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**David Njoku (TE, LAC)**: ADP 136.0 to 147.2, down 11.2 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE15.
**Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)**: ADP 153.2 to 164.1, down 10.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB67.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: the market drafts him WR77 at ADP 162.4; our blend ranks him WR66. That is a 11 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a IR designation.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB55 at ADP 155.5; our blend ranks him RB45. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Dylan Sampson (RB, CLE)**: the market drafts him RB62 at ADP 160.2; our blend ranks him RB52. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Jaylin Noel (WR, HOU)**: the market drafts him WR85 at ADP 178.2; our blend ranks him WR75. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB12 at ADP 101.8; our blend ranks him QB3. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: the market drafts him RB66 at ADP 164.0; our blend ranks him RB57. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB49 at ADP 147.3; our blend has him RB92, 43 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Cyrus Allen (WR, KC)**: drafters take him WR64 at ADP 147.8; our blend has him WR107, 43 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB50 at ADP 148.7; our blend has him RB91, 41 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Emmett Johnson (RB, KC)**: drafters take him RB52 at ADP 152.6; our blend has him RB93, 41 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL)**: drafters take him WR72 at ADP 159.2; our blend has him WR102, 30 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Chris Bell (WR, MIA)**: drafters take him WR73 at ADP 159.4; our blend has him WR103, 30 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Chris Bell (WR, MIA)**: climbed from WR251 to WR103 on our board this week.
**Dean Connors (RB, LAR)**: climbed from RB184 to RB97 on our board this week.
**Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN)**: climbed from RB79 to RB44 on our board this week.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: climbed from RB80 to RB49 on our board this week.
**Chimere Dike (WR, TEN)**: climbed from WR84 to WR57 on our board this week.
**Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)**: fell from WR49 to WR82 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)**: fell from RB48 to RB67 on our board this week.
**Oronde Gadsden II (TE, LAC)**: fell from TE18 to TE28 on our board this week.
**Malik Willis (QB, MIA)**: fell from QB33 to QB41 on our board this week.
**Will Levis (QB, TEN)**: fell from QB32 to QB39 on our board this week.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.