NFL2026-10-06NFL Week 5 Rest-of-Season Risers and Fallers: Durham Smythe up 83, Marvin Mims Jr. down 27
By Verdexed Analytics
The rest-of-season board, rebuilt October 6, against the board of October 2: 23 players up by a tier's worth at the position, 26 down. Rank is the position rank on the rest-of-season board (points a game over the position's replacement starter, times games left, PPR). The reason is what the data says changed: this season's average, a designation, a team.
Quarterbacks
Risers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB21 | QB13 | +8 | 16.7 | Season average 11.0 to 14.6 a game; projection 15.8 to 16.7. |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB24 | QB18 | +6 | 16.1 | Projection 15.5 to 16.1. |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB6 | QB3 | +3 | 19.4 | Season average 19.6 to 20.8 a game; projection 18.9 to 19.4. |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB7 | QB4 | +3 | 20.1 | Season average 17.6 to 19.3 a game. |
Fallers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB20 | QB24 | -4 | 14.7 | Season average 15.3 to 13.7 a game; projection 15.3 to 14.7. |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB3 | QB6 | -3 | 19.1 | Season average 20.0 to 18.9 a game. |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB11 | QB14 | -3 | 16.6 | Season average 16.9 to 15.3 a game; projection 17.3 to 16.6. |
| Malik Willis | MIA | QB18 | QB21 | -3 | 14.9 | Season average 16.2 to 13.7 a game; projection 15.9 to 14.9. |
Into the starting 12: Baker Mayfield (QB12).
Out of the starting 12: Jalen Hurts (QB11 to QB14).
Running backs
Risers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB29 | RB19 | +10 | 14.3 | Now listed Questionable: Monangai was on the bench for the final four minutes of the victor; season average 11.0 to 14.4 a game; projection 12.8 to 14.3. |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB24 | RB17 | +7 | 14.7 | Season average 10.3 to 14.0 a game; projection 13.7 to 14.7. |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB12 | RB6 | +6 | 18.4 | Season average 17.8 to 21.6 a game; projection 16.3 to 18.4. |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB28 | RB22 | +6 | 13.9 | Season average 12.4 to 14.3 a game; projection 13.0 to 13.9. |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB18 | RB13 | +5 | 15.5 | Season average 15.1 to 16.9 a game; projection 14.5 to 15.5. |
Fallers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB15 | RB25 | -10 | 13.5 | Season average 8.3 to 7.3 a game; projection 14.8 to 13.5. |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB22 | RB32 | -10 | 12.3 | Now listed Questionable: Barkley injured his hamstring in the opening minutes of Sunday's g; season average 8.6 to 7.0 a game; projection 13.8 to 12.3. |
| Austin Ekeler | WSH | RB20 | RB28 | -8 | 13.2 | 6.0 a game over 1 game; projection 15.0 to 13.2. |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB13 | RB18 | -5 | 15.7 | Projection 16.6 to 15.7. |
Into the starting 30: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB30).
Out of the starting 30: Saquon Barkley (RB22 to RB32, Questionable: Barkley injured his hamstring in the opening minutes of Sunday's g).
Wide receivers
Risers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | TEN | WR89 | WR53 | +36 | 11.4 | Season average 9.4 to 13.2 a game; projection 9.7 to 11.4. |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR77 | WR43 | +34 | 10.8 | Now listed Out: Depending how quickly Thornton bounces back from surgery, Zenitz notes that; season average 6.4 to 10.7 a game; projection 9.2 to 10.8. |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR60 | WR37 | +23 | 12.4 | Season average 6.8 to 10.8 a game; projection 11.2 to 12.4. |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR27 | WR10 | +17 | 17.1 | Season average 11.2 to 19.0 a game; projection 13.9 to 17.1. |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR76 | WR59 | +17 | 10.8 | Season average 5.4 to 8.0 a game; projection 10.2 to 10.8. |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR53 | WR38 | +15 | 12.3 | Season average 8.4 to 10.7 a game; projection 11.7 to 12.3. |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | WR63 | WR49 | +14 | 11.7 | Season average 8.0 to 10.4 a game; projection 11.0 to 11.7. |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR64 | WR51 | +13 | 11.4 | Season average 6.5 to 8.7 a game. |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR82 | WR69 | +13 | 10.5 | Season average 6.7 to 8.5 a game. |
| Mike Evans | SF | WR43 | WR34 | +9 | 12.7 | Back to no designation. |
Fallers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | WR39 | WR66 | -27 | 10.6 | 0.2 a game over 1 game; projection 12.7 to 10.6. |
| Jacob Cowing | SF | WR61 | WR76 | -15 | 8.9 | Projection 10.0 to 8.9. |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR54 | WR68 | -14 | 10.5 | Season average 6.0 to 4.9 a game; projection 11.7 to 10.5. |
| Kaden Davis | CHI | WR65 | WR79 | -14 | 8.0 | Projection 9.1 to 8.0. |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR14 | WR25 | -11 | 15.0 | Now listed Questionable: Rice was forced from Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, but it; season average 12.9 to 9.7 a game; projection 16.9 to 15.0. |
| Tory Horton | SEA | WR36 | WR46 | -10 | 11.9 | Projection 13.0 to 11.9. |
| DJ Moore | BUF | WR42 | WR52 | -10 | 11.5 | Now listed Questionable: Moore exited Sunday's loss to the Patriots after aggravating a pre; season average 11.3 to 9.2 a game; projection 12.6 to 11.5. |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR62 | WR72 | -10 | 8.9 | Projection 9.7 to 8.9. |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR20 | WR29 | -9 | 13.2 | Season average 12.3 to 9.2 a game; projection 14.8 to 13.2. |
| Jared Wayne | HOU | WR45 | WR54 | -9 | 10.5 | Season average 4.0 to 3.0 a game; projection 11.8 to 10.5. |
Into the starting 42: Mike Evans (WR34), Keon Coleman (WR37), Rome Odunze (WR38), Xavier Worthy (WR40).
Out of the starting 42: Tory Horton (WR36 to WR46), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR39 to WR66), DJ Moore (WR42 to WR52, Questionable: Moore exited Sunday's loss to the Patriots after aggravating a pre).
Tight ends
Risers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | BAL | TE97 | TE14 | +83 | 2.8 | Now listed Out: The Ravens had been concerned that Smythe ruptured his Achilles during Sund. |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE28 | TE13 | +15 | 11.6 | Season average 7.0 to 12.3 a game; projection 9.5 to 11.6. |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE24 | TE18 | +6 | 11.0 | Season average 6.2 to 9.4 a game; projection 9.9 to 11.0. |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE22 | TE19 | +3 | 11.0 | Projection 10.4 to 11.0. |
Fallers
| Player | Team | Was | Now | Move | ROS pts/g | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | TE31 | TE47 | -16 | 8.5 | Back to no designation; season average 11.8 to 8.9 a game; projection 9.6 to 8.5. |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE26 | TE40 | -14 | 9.0 | Season average 7.3 to 6.1 a game; projection 9.8 to 9.0. |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE13 | TE23 | -10 | 9.7 | 2.7 a game over 1 game; projection 11.1 to 9.7. |
| Hayden Rucci | LAC | TE16 | TE24 | -8 | 9.2 | Projection 10.8 to 9.2. |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE17 | TE25 | -8 | 10.2 | Projection 10.9 to 10.2. |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE27 | TE32 | -5 | 7.5 | Season average 6.8 to 5.1 a game; projection 8.4 to 7.5. |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE23 | TE27 | -4 | 10.0 | The players around him moved. |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE9 | TE12 | -3 | 11.6 | Season average 15.1 to 12.1 a game; projection 12.7 to 11.6. |
No longer on the board: Jeshaun Jones (WR33).
How this is built
The rest-of-season board is the season board with this year's games blended in and the injury feed applied, rebuilt every morning; a snapshot is kept each Tuesday after the season board rebuild. The live board is on the NFL rankings page. This is a fantasy piece, not betting advice.