Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Isaiah Likely Climbs, Jaylen Waddle Slides (Week of September 22)

The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the September 15 and September 22 ADP snapshots, Isaiah Likely climbed 20.1 picks to an ADP of 123.4 while Jaylen Waddle slid 6.4 picks to 48.7. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.

Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.

The market's risers

Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.

**Isaiah Likely (TE, NYG)**: ADP 143.5 to 123.4, up 20.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE4.

**Jalen Coker (WR, CAR)**: ADP 116.6 to 99.4, up 17.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR27, 13 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.

**Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)**: ADP 137.5 to 122.6, up 14.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE3.

**Colston Loveland (TE, CHI)**: ADP 58.1 to 47.2, up 10.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE2.

**Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)**: ADP 110.0 to 99.2, up 10.8 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB5, 2 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.

**Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS)**: ADP 96.8 to 86.1, up 10.7 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR23, 10 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.

**Josh Allen (QB, BUF)**: ADP 32.9 to 23.8, up 9.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him QB1.

**Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)**: ADP 86.6 to 77.5, up 9.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him QB3. Note the Out tag on the injury report.

The market's fallers

Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.

**Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN)**: ADP 42.3 to 48.7, down 6.4 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR8.

**Blake Corum (RB, LAR)**: ADP 120.2 to 125.7, down 5.5 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB31, 19 spots behind his market slot.

**James Cook III (RB, BUF)**: ADP 11.2 to 15.3, down 4.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB4.

**Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)**: ADP 62.5 to 65.3, down 2.8 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB23, 12 spots behind his market slot. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.

**Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC)**: ADP 37.3 to 40.0, down 2.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR6.

Where the Verdexed board pushes back

Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.

**Blake Corum (RB, LAR)**: drafters take him RB12 at ADP 125.7; our blend has him RB31, 19 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.

**Matthew Golden (WR, GB)**: drafters take him WR15 at ADP 99.8; our blend has him WR29, 14 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.

**Jalen Coker (WR, CAR)**: drafters take him WR14 at ADP 99.4; our blend has him WR27, 13 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.

**Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)**: drafters take him RB11 at ADP 65.3; our blend has him RB23, 12 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them. He carries a Questionable designation.

**Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS)**: drafters take him WR13 at ADP 86.1; our blend has him WR23, 10 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.

**Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI)**: drafters take him RB8 at ADP 28.4; our blend has him RB17, 9 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.

Our board moved too

The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:

**Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, JAX)**: climbed from WR37 to WR9 on our board this week.

**Jayden Higgins (WR, HOU)**: climbed from WR63 to WR36 on our board this week. The IR designation is part of that math.

**Keenan Allen (WR, IND)**: climbed from WR58 to WR32 on our board this week.

**Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS)**: climbed from WR48 to WR23 on our board this week.

**Jalen Coker (WR, CAR)**: climbed from WR52 to WR27 on our board this week.

**Chris Olave (WR, NO)**: fell from WR11 to WR34 on our board this week.

**DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)**: fell from WR14 to WR37 on our board this week.

**A.J. Brown (WR, NE)**: fell from WR8 to WR30 on our board this week. The IR designation is part of that math.

**Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)**: fell from TE11 to TE27 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.

**Chase Brown (RB, CIN)**: fell from RB10 to RB25 on our board this week.

How to use this

The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.

One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.